I am cautiously optimistic about President Obama winning reelection this November. It appears that the investors at www.intrade.com agree. They give the odds of his reelection as 55.6% . There are important caveats.
It is very , very early.
President Obama is below 50 in many important states.
President Obama's FAVS are only mediocre in many important states.
The economy is still growing slowly.
The numbers will change after their convention.
Willard and the superpacs will spends tons of $ in negative ads against the President.
Nevertheless, I like the President's chances.
The republican overreach against unions and choice caused their governors to become
radically unpopular in important states like Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin among others.
I cannot imagine the Republicans winning Ohio and they have no shot at winning without winning Ohio.
The President is fighting more and campaigning more as an economic populist.
RMoney becomes more unpopular with voters the better they know him.
Romney has poor results to show for his six years of running.
RMoney is a gaffe machine whose off the cuff remarks reveal he is against the 99% and for the 1 %. He is one of the worst presumptive nominees I have seen in my lifetime, especially in an election about economic justice.
RMoney cannot easily pivot back to the middle due to his history of flip flops.
RMoney has weak support from his party's base voters.
President Obama is the best campaigner ever.
President Obama is moving back to the center of our party, shoring up his support among Democratic voters.
The economy is growing and creating jobs again.
RMoney tied himself to privatizing Medicare.
RMoney is poor at connecting with voters , has little enthusiasm from his supporters .
RMoney's policies are worse versions of the economic policies which led us into the great recession.
The republican brand is badly damaged.
The Latino vote ( the Dream Act) !
President Obama has many paths to 270. The republicans have far fewer ways of getting there.
President Obama's numbers will turn above 50 since this has become a choice election.