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The early 2012 battleground picture

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The Beltway conventional wisdom:

If Obama is on the rebound, someone forgot to tell swing voters in the most important up-for-grabs states in 2012.

The idea is that while Obama may be up nationally, he's lagging in the battleground states. But is that true? It's not. You'll see why below.

FLORIDA:

poll trendlines: Obama 45.3, Romney 45.1
It looks like the week of GOP primary campaigning in Florida didn't help their chances in the state.

OHIO:

Ohio poll trendlines: Obama 46.2, Romney 42
That's a solid, and consistent, Obama lead—surprising in a state that has already seen a great deal of activity from the conservative Super PACs.

PENNSYLVANIA:

Pennsylvania poll trendlines: Obama 42.5, Romney 35.1
It's not as if Obama is beloved in the Keystone State, but damn, look at Romney. He's got a long way to climb to get to 50+1 percent in this must-win state for Republicans.

More state results below the fold.


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