On one hand we had the New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states suggesting that Joe Biden is running ahead of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump in general election matchups. On the other, the recent Washington Post poll that showed little difference between those three (though with implausibly big Democratic leads).
Today, Data for Progress and Civiqs released state tracking data showing not only that the race is close, but it hardly even matters who our nominee is. In the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, it's scary close. Winnable close, but also losable close. And it's generic Democrat vs. Trump to the bitter end.
NATIONAL, registered voters
| 11/3 | 10/1 | 9/1 | 8/1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren | 48 | 48 | 47 | 47 |
| Trump | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 |
| Biden | 47 | 47 | 46 | 46 |
| Trump | 43 | 44 | 44 | 43 |
| Sanders | 47 | 46 | 45 | 45 |
| Trump | 43 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
Big difference from the 17-point Biden lead in the Washington Post poll. These numbers are far more realistic.
| MI | PA | WI | AZ | FL | NC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren | 47 | 48 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 46 |
| Trump | 44 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 46 | 46 |
| Biden | 46 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Trump | 44 | 43 | 43 | 45 | 46 | 47 |
| Sanders | 47 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 45 |
| Trump | 43 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 46 | 46 |
Having seen the tracking data over the course of the year, I can say that Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin regularly flip from blue to red—they are on a razor’s edge, essentially tied, and the game will be decided by turnout. Michigan and Pennsylvania have maintained small-but-steady Democratic leads: nothing to take to the bank, but the edge clearly is ours.
The only other state that we’re currently seeing as tightly competitive? Georgia, with a slight Trump advantage. Beyond that, it gets much harder for either side. So sure, you’ll need to lock down some of the reach states to prevent any 2016-style surprises (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada for the Dems, and Iowa, Ohio, and maybe Texas for the GOP), but really, the entire game looks to be those six states polled above plus Georgia.
If you're not terrified, you should be. And no, there’s no magic candidate that gives us a better chance than any other. You can vote with your heart, because when it comes to November, no one runs away with the victory.