On Friday, a federal district court delivered a major win against Republican gerrymandering when it struck down Ohio's congressional map for violating the constitutional rights of Democratic voters. The court ordered legislators to devise a new map by June 14 for the 2020 elections that would be much fairer than the existing lines. If lawmakers don't pass a new map, or if the Republicans—who have total control over state government—simply pass a new replacement gerrymander, the court itself could draw its own districts.
Despite its longtime status as a swing state, Ohio is home to one of the most extreme GOP gerrymanders of any state in the country. These tortured lines have ensured Republican control of 12 of the state's 16 congressional seats this entire decade, even when Obama carried Ohio in 2012. By contrast, a nonpartisan map, such as the one we've drawn, likely would have seen Democrats win three or four more seats in the 2018 elections—a far more equitable distribution.
This ruling could also have major consequences for redistricting after the 2020 census, when Ohio, like every other state, was already set to draw a new map beginning with the 2022 elections. Although Ohio legislators passed a "compromise" constitutional amendment in 2018 to reform congressional redistricting in an ostensibly bipartisan manner, that supposed reform was actually a cunning Republican scheme to thwart a 2018 ballot initiative effort at the time that was aiming to create a more independent and fairer process.
Multiple analysts have demonstrated the weakness of the amendment that did pass by drawing maps that would conform to the state's new rules on the surface yet in reality would be almost as egregiously gerrymandered as the current lines. However, if Ohio is required to use fairer districts for 2020, that would set a new baseline for the 2020 map and make it harder for Republicans to get away with drawing another extreme gerrymander, since they would be subject to judicial review and additional political pressure from the public.
Unfortunately for Democrats and fair redistricting, there's a very strong chance that the partisan Republican majority on the U.S. Supreme Court will quickly block the lower court from requiring a new map and ultimately overturn its decision in response to the GOP's planned appeal. The high court has repeatedly refused to limit partisan gerrymandering, which overwhelmingly favored Republicans this decade and is poised to do so again after 2020. Experts expect the justices will uphold the practice of gerrymandering in 5-4 rulings in two key cases in Maryland and North Carolina in June.