As results from Super Tuesday 2 keep trickling in, Clinton adds another +4 pledged delegates from Ohio and Florida. +327 pledged delegate lead, Clinton.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Clinton’s total net gain from Super Tuesday 2 currently stands at +104, but there are still 21 pledged delegates to allocate from Illinois. Current totals from ST2, 387 - 283, Clinton.
Pledged delegates left to allocate:
- Florida - 0
- Illinois - 21
- Missouri - 0
- North Carolina - 0
- Ohio - 0
Yesterday the AP finally called Missouri for Clinton. This gave Clinton a sweep of all contests on Super Tuesday 2.
Check out the NYT Upshot Interactive delegate calculator. It extrapolates what each candidate needs vote wise (%) over the remaining contests to hold or take a pledged delegate lead.
Harry Enten, of FiveThirtyEight, has a very interesting piece about primary and general election turnout. It’s worth reading.
In five of the six years in our data set, the party that had a smaller vote share margin between its nominee and runner-up — that is, the one with the more competitive contest — had higher turnout. Indeed, the difference in margin for the two winners and the difference in raw turnout for each party had a fairly high correlation of -0.81. The only year in which turnout was higher in the less competitive primary was in 1976, when Jimmy Carter won just 40 percent of the primary vote and had serious competitors until the end of the primary calendar. Both sides were quite competitive that year.
So it shouldn’t be surprising that Republican turnout is higher than Democratic turnout this year. Hillary Clinton is a commanding front-runner on the Democratic side, while the front-runner on the Republican side has earned only one-third of the vote and less than half the delegates allocated so far. Voters are turning out for the more competitive contest.