Yesterday evening, my beloved laptop appears to have finally bit the dust, courtesy of a computer virus (as my friends with Macs smirk knowingly). That explains the absence of the Polling Wrap on Wednesday night.
Based on the numbers from the last two days, you might think that Mitt Romney's presidential ambitions might be about to bite the dust, as well.
To be clear, his polling numbers right now, both in the Republican primary and in a potential general election matchup with the president, are sagging badly. If you believe the data coming out over the past several days, Romney will not win Michigan, and his once-formidable lead over the field in Arizona is all but gone. What's more--his national numbers are perhaps even worse. Meanwhile, Barack Obama has solid leads over the entire field, and Romney's once clear "electability" edge (as it relates to how he fares against Obama versus the other Republicans) is gone.
But if you only rely on certain media outlets for your political news, you might not know that. Indeed, one of the bigger polling stories today was a small kerfluffle over polling itself. It is a debate which we here at Daily Kos have a clear interest in, given the pollster that has been our partner for quite some time.
My thoughts on that debate will follow. But, first, we have two days of data to peruse. With that in mind, let's take a crack at the Republican primary data first:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Santorum 32, Romney 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 10That metric ton of polling dutifully consumed, let's now turn our attention to an equally heavy dose of general election polling, which includes new looks at a couple of states that haven't seen a ton of polling recently: New Mexico and Washington.NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Santorum 39, Romney 27, Gingrich 15, Paul 10
NATIONAL (YouGov): Santorum 29, Romney 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 14
ARIZONA (American Research Group): Romney 38, Santorum 31, Gingrich 15, Paul 11
MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group/Detroit News): Santorum 34, Romney 30, Gingrich 12, Paul 9
MICHIGAN (Marketing Resource Group/Inside Michigan Politics): Santorum 43, Romney 33, Gingrich 11, Paul 8
MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone): Santorum 34, Romney 25, Paul 11, Gingrich 5
NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Romney 32, Santorum 20, Paul 14, Gingrich 10
NORTH CAROLINA (High Point University): Romney 30, Gingrich 19, Santorum 13, Paul 11
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Santorum 36, Romney 29, Gingrich 20, Paul 9
OHIO (Rasmussen): Santorum 42, Romney 24, Gingrich 13, Paul 10
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (51-46); Obama d. Santorum (52-45); Obama d. Paul (52-45); Obama d. Gingrich (55-42)Now, follow me past the jump, as I look at the tale of the tape in the battle between a college professor and one of the better known voices and faces in the political media.NATIONAL (Democracy Corps): Obama d. Romney (49-45)
SWING STATES* (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (47-39); Obama d. Santorum (48-39); Obama d. Paul (48-36); Obama d. Gingrich (52-32)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-43); Obama d. Paul (44-39); Obama d. Santorum (47-41); Obama d. Gingrich (51-37)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (49-42); Obama d. Santorum (49-42); Obama d. Paul (49-41); Obama d. Gingrich (52-37)
MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama d. Santorum (50-39); Obama d. Romney (54-36); Obama d. Paul (52-34); Obama d. Gingrich (56-34)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Benenson Strategy): Obama d. Romney by 8 points (no % reported)
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (55-37); Obama d. Romney (55-36)
NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (52-35); Obama d. Santorum (53-35); Obama d. Gingrich (57-31)
OHIO (Fox News): Romney d. Obama (44-38); Santorum d. Obama (43-40); Paul d. Obama (42-41); Obama d. Gingrich (43-37)
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-44); Obama d. Santorum (47-41); Obama d. Gingrich (50-38)
WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Obama d. Romney (49-38); Obama d. Romney and Paul (44-28-17)
(*)--"Swing States" defined by pollster as: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin