Polls, momentum shifts, and the race for the White House

It is not a new joke, but it is one I have felt compelled to share several times over the past few weeks:

Q: Who is winning the Republican presidential primaries?

A: Barack Obama

It is more than snark, however. There is some pretty clear evidence in the polling that Barack Obama is in a far better political position now than he was in just three months ago, when no votes had yet been cast in the Republican presidential sweepstakes. How much that can be owed to the caliber of his Republican rivals, however, is subject to considerable debate. But what is beyond debate, at this point, is Barack Obama is a considerably better bet in February than he was in November.

National polls aren't always the best indicator of the state of a presidential race, since (of course) victory is achieved on a state-by-state basis. But a cursory look at that national polling shows a bit of a shift from November until today (source for data here):

NATIONAL POLLS (Obama vs. Romney)

Average lead (November 1-15--12 polls): Obama +1.3

Average lead (February 1-11--5 polls): Obama +4.8

Worth noting: the RCP poll archive does not include a few polls that were even better for Obama, including a 12-point lead in the all-internet YouGov poll this week. Even without that example, it is worth noting that, since the new year began, the president has led by five points or more in 42% of the polls conducted (8 of 19). In the month of November, Barack Obama only led by five points or more in 21% of the polls conducted (3 of 14).

Of course, you don't win the president in a national popular vote. The presidency is not won by a single contest, it is won by fifty-one separate contests. And, in those states, the movement towards Barack Obama might even be more stark.

To make sure that the comparisons were fair, what follows is a set of statewide polling, with one poll conducted either in October or November of 2011 compared with a 2012 poll by the same pollster. The differences, in most states (Arizona is a key exception), were clear:

ARIZONA (Behavior Research Center):
October 2011: Obama 45-40
January 2012: Romney 43-37

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA):
November 2011: Obama 50-39
February 2012: Obama 60-31

FLORIDA (Rasmussen):
November 2011: Romney 46-42
February 2012: Obama 47-44

MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA):
November 2011: Romney 46-41
January 2012: Obama 48-40

NORTH CAROLINA (PPP):
November 2011: Romney 46-45
February 2012: Obama 47-46

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire):
October 2011: Romney 50-42
February 2012: Obama 50-40

NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac):
October 2011: Obama 47-41
January 2012: Obama 48-38

NEW YORK (Marist):
November 2011: Obama 59-35
January 2012: Obama 58-35

OHIO (PPP):
October 2011: Obama/Romney tied (46-46)
January 2012: Obama 49-42

PENNSYLVANIA (Franklin & Marshall):
November 2011: Obama 35-26
January 2012: Obama 41-30

VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac):
October 2011: Romney 45-44
February 2012: Obama 47-43

With about a dozen states in the mix, Romney's standing has only improved in two of them, with one of those (New York) so far out of his reach that his one-point improvement on the margin is probably not worth discussing. But what is worth discussing is that a total of six states, with 85 total electoral votes, were either deadlocked or leaning to Romney a few months ago. Obama has at least nominal leads in all of them today. That is notable, to say the least.

So, to what do we owe this shift?

To say that Obama is the beneficiary of improving public perceptions about the state of the nation, and the economy in particular, would be somewhat fair. However, the mood of the electorate has not improved so much that it would be correct to say that this is the sole, or even primary, reason for the uptick in Barack Obama's electoral fortunes. The recent Ipsos national poll, for example, found the "right track/wrong track" metric sitting at a still dismal 32/62. However, that is a substantial improvement over early October, when nearly three-quarters of voters surveyed by Ipsos thought the country was on the wrong track. Other pollsters have echoed the same theme: a somewhat disgruntled electorate that is nevertheless a bit more content than they were in the latter half of 2011.

One has to also give a bit of credit to the Occupy movement, and the publicity surrounding it, for the resurrection of the president's electoral fortunes. The change in the debate over the economy since last summer has shifted from notions of budget deficits and government spending to notions of tax fairness and jobs. And, as recent polling shows, the GOP is likely to be on the wrong side of that debate in the eyes of voters. In the ABC/WaPo poll conducted last week, 68 percent of Americans feel the tax system favors the wealthy. An earlier poll, conducted for CBS and the New York Times in late January, found that 54 percent of Americans felt they paid their fair share or too little in taxes (as opposed to only 40 percent who felt they paid too much). When asked the same question about the wealthy, 55 percent felt that they paid less than their fair share.

But, as much as anything else, it is very difficult not to conclude that some of the credit (or blame) for the resurrection of Barack Obama's polling numbers has to be laid at the doorstep of Mitt Romney and the Republicans vying to replace him. If there has been a consistent theme in polling of the GOP presidential primaries (and little has actually been consistent), it is that the president's middling approval numbers still are substantially better than any of the Republicans running against him. What's more, the continuing GOP race seems to be having two distinct impacts: (1) the opinion of voters towards the GOP field seems to be getting worse, and (2) the opinion of voters toward Barack Obama seems to be getting better.

President Obama's approval ratings, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll, is considerably better than it has been in recent months. For most of the past week (and ended today by an abrupt negative shift), the president's net approval rating has been positive, one of the few weeks since the bin Laden news last week for which that was true.

Meanwhile, the electorate continues to be, at best, equivocal about the GOP field. And equivocal might be overselling it: last week's ABC/WaPo poll contained a most intriguing data point: the fact that 52 percent of voters polled felt that they liked Mitt Romney less the more they get to know him. If, as recent results hint, the GOP primary process might be an extended slog, voters are going to get to know Mitt Romney a lot better. If past is prologue, that might be good news for Barack Obama.

But don't get lulled into any sort of complacency. It's early February, and a lot of the structural dynamics of this race, in any normal election year, would be decidedly pessimistic for the chances of re-election for the Democratic president. The right track/wrong track numbers, while improving, are still pretty awful. The president's approval numbers, while considerably better than they were in the Fall, still struggle to consistently stay at or above 50 percent.

While the vector of the race, right now, is trending positive for Barack Obama, nobody remembers who was leading in the third mile of a marathon. Supporters should remember that, and it is a lock that the president's re-election team know that all too well.