Public Policy Polling (PDF). 1/27-29. MoE ±4.1%. Missouri voters (9/9-12 results):
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 47 (45)
Bill Randles (R): 29 (24)
Undecided: 24 (30)Jay Nixon (D-inc): 47 (--)
Dave Spence (R): 27 (--)
Undecided: 26 (--)Jay Nixon (D-inc): 48 (--)
Tom Schweich (R): 30 (--)
Undecided: 22 (--)
Two polls released last Friday from Public Policy Polling both show double-digit leads for incumbent Democrats who, a year ago, were often on pundits' "vulnerable Dems!!!" lists but whose Republican opposition hasn't done much to justify that characterization. We'll start with Missouri Governor Jay Nixon, who sports leads of 18 and 20 against his two announced opponents, Bill Randles and Dave Spence. He also has a lead of 18 against State Auditor Tom Schweich, who, given the weakness of the current field, has floated his name for the race though hasn't taken any steps beyond that. (This is the same sample that pointed to a 45-45 tie between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney; between the gubernatorial and presidential numbers, you might think the sample is a bit too Democrat-friendly, but the sample went 46-45 for John McCain in 2008, the same fractional margin as the '08 Missouri results.)
Nixon, with an overall approval rate of 44/31, benefits not only from weak opposition (9/16 faves for Randles, 6/15 for Spence, and 12/16 for Schweich), but solid crossover appeal from Republicans (34/40 from them) and indies (44/29); the main thing holding him back from crossing the 50 percent mark is a relatively high rate of disapproval from Democrats (54/25). If you're unfamiliar with the Republicans here, Spence is the rich guy who was supposed to parachute in to the Republicans' rescue after Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's stripper-related implosion last fall. The fact that Spence (whose rollout was greatly hampered by revelations that his claimed degree in economics was actually a degree in home economics) isn't polling any better than Bill Randles (a former lawyer who seems to be working more of a tea party angle than Spence, and who seems to personify what we at Daily Kos Elections call "Some Dude")—and is in fact losing the GOP primary to Randles, albeit by a useless 15-12 margin—suggests that Spence is not the magic bullet the Republicans were looking for.
More below the fold.