now you know
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 47 (49)
Josh Mandel (R): 32 (34)
Undecided: 18 (14)
It seems reasonable to expect that the Ohio Senate race will get tighter at some point, given that Ohio is the swingiest of states and Republicans have already started pouring outside money into the race... but it just isn't happening yet. Except for one PPP poll from October, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown has always led Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel by double digits. Today's Quinnipiac poll is no different, and young Mandel might be starting to wonder if he's bitten off more than he could chew too soon.
Mandel's one hope is that he can make a positive impression on the vast number of people who haven't heard of him yet, seeing as how he's held statewide office for only a year (he's at 17/13 favorables, leaving 69% undecided). Brown is much better-known but also well-liked, with 47/34 job approvals, which leaves him the most popular politician in the state. (Usually-uncontroversial Republican Sen. Rob Portman is at 39/25, while constantly-controversial Republican Gov. John Kasich is still in the doghouse at 39/48.)
Presidential numbers (December results in parentheses):
Barack Obama (D-inc): 44 (42)
Mitt Romney (R): 42 (43)
Undecided: 8 (8)Barack Obama (D-inc): 52 (42)
Newt Gingrich (R): 38 (43)
Undecided: 5 (7)Barack Obama (D-inc): 48 (--)
Rick Santorum (R): 37 (--)
Undecided: 9 (--)Barack Obama (D-inc): 48 (--)
Ron Paul (R): 39 (--)
Undecided: 6 (--)
Mitt Romney (R): 27 (18)
Rick Santorum(R): 18 (2)
Newt Gingrich (R): 17 (36)
Ron Paul (R): 10 (7)
Rick Perry (R): 4 (4)
Jon Huntsman (R): 2 (1)
Undecided: 20 (15)
Quinnipiac's presidential portion of its sample is a little less alarming than their last look, which was in December. That poll may have been most remarkable not for showing a close race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, which is and pretty much always has been the standard result, but rather for showing Newt Gingrich leading Obama. That poll, of course, was taken at the height of Gingrich-mentum, though, and, with the lightning speed the GOP primary has evolved this year, the Newt-related novelty has long since worn off, with his favorables plunging to 26/51 today from 32/38 a month ago. Today's poll sees Gingrich falling behind by a catastrophic 14 points, while Romney only falls back a few points, to resume trailing Obama by 2 (Obama led Romney by 3 in Quinnipiac's November poll of Ohio). Obama's approvals are a tepid 44/51, while Romney generates a lot of 'meh,' at 36/34.