Quinnipiac: Support for rejecting Ohio's SB 5 is growing

John Kasich's signature union-busting bill in Ohio is in trouble, according to the latest Q-poll:

Ohio voters support 57 - 32 percent the repeal of SB 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51 - 38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll.

The Q-poll out today suggests the spirit of WI and Occupy Wall Street continues to find fertile soil.  For some details on what is now called "Issue 2" on the ballot:

While Republicans oppose repeal 59 - 32 percent, their votes are buried under by Democrats who support repeal 77 - 13 percent and independent voters who agree 56 - 32 percent. Support for repeal is strong across gender, racial, income and education groups:

    • Men, 54 - 38 percent, and women, 58 - 27 percent;
    • Those without college degrees, 56 - 30 percent, and those with degrees, 57 - 37 percent;
    • Whites, 54 - 35 percent, and blacks, 76 - 15 percent;
    • Voters making over $100,000, 52 - 42 percent, those who earn less, 59 - 30 percent;
    • Voters in union households, 70 - 24 percent, non-union households, 52 - 35 percent.

Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB
5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," said Brown.

And along with SB 5, Kasich himself is not wearing well with independents:

Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71 - 23 percent, not hugely different than the 75 - 14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance. The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54 - 30 percent. Men disapprove 50 - 41 percent, while women give him a 54 - 31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51 - 35 percent last month.

Compare this with polling earlier this month from PPP:

The preferences of Republicans and independents on Senate Bill 5 are mostly unchanged from two months ago.  Independents are evenly divided on the issue, 46/46. And Republicans want to uphold it 61/30. But Democrats have unified in their support for repealing SB 5.  In August they were only planning to overturn it by a 69/21 margin. Now that figure is 80/13. That increase in Democratic support for repeal may be indicative of voters becoming increasingly aware what the implications of a 'yes' and 'no' vote are on this somewhat complicated referendum.

Republicans can win by lying about their intentions, but once in office they have trouble holding their gains. The unpopularity of Republican Governors doesn't directly translate to presidential politics—Rick Scott's unpopularity in FL and Kasich's in OH doesn't automatically mean D wins in 2012—but it's part of the background that flavors the political stew. That's especially true for issues like SB 5/Issue 2 that attract headlines, yet are still complex enough to have a learning curve.

But once non-Republicans realize what these guys are about, opposition grows.