Quinnipiac University (7/12-7/18, Registered Voters, May results in parentheses)
Sherrod Brown (D) 49 (45)
Josh Mandel (R) 34 (31)Sherrod Brown (D) 50 (44)
Kevin Coughlin (R) 32 (28)
A handful of voters have come off the fence in the Buckeye State, and the Democratic incumbent has held onto quite a few of them, according to the latest Q poll. Right-wing analysts immediately noted Brown's position at or under "the 50 percent threshold." But that threshold means a bit less when a candidate is right on the number, and his opponent is still down 15-20 points.
Republican golden child Josh Mandel raised some eyebrows earlier in the month with his $2+ million fundraising haul, and while he is the early leader in the GOP Senate primary, it is a fairly unimpressive advantage. "Undecided" still leads the GOP primary with 46 percent of the vote, well ahead of Mandel (35 percent) and Coughlin (12 percent).
Assuming Mandel does emerge as the Republican nominee, he is going to have his work cut out for him in chasing Sherrod Brown. Unlike a lot of incumbent politicos, the first-term Democrat actually enjoys halfway decent job approval numbers. He sits at a 49/30 spread, with independents approving by a 43/32 margin. He even is at parity (38/39) with born-again evangelicals (President Obama, by comparison, is at 28/68).
Brown does have to worry a bit about Mandel's fundraising prowess, and the climate does not bode terribly well for incumbents generally. But he heads into the dog days of summer in a pretty enviable position.
Meanwhile, the president is in a familiar position in Ohio, according to the Q poll. Middling job approval numbers, but he maintains a lead forged on the general lack of enthusiasm for the Republican alternatives.
Barack Obama (D) 45
Mitt Romney (R) 41Barack Obama (D) 47
Rick Perry (R) 35Barack Obama (D) 49
Michele Bachmann (R) 36Barack Obama (D) 51
Sarah Palin (R) 35
The Republicans are deeply divided when looking at their corps of pretenders to the throne. No candidate draws more than 16 percent of the vote in the poll's Republican primary ballot test. That might explain why the president gets virtually all of the vote from those who approve of his job performance, but the GOP contenders do not get all of the vote from those who disapprove of his job performance.
Ohio is a "must have" for the GOP in 2012, and if the poll makes one thing clear, the current field of Republicans is miles away from sealing the deal. If President Obama can hang onto Ohio in 2012, his path to 270 becomes much, much clearer.