One of the more painful results from last fall was the election of Paul LePage in Maine, if only for its familiarity - in 2008 I watched Gaye Symington's gubernatorial campaign collapse over the fall, splitting the left vote, and leaving Governor Jim Douglas with a clear path to another term. In Maine, State Sen. Libby Mitchell's campaign was undoubtedly poor, leaving room for an independent challenger to make inroads. While Eliot Cutler's support was decided moderate, as a third-party observer, it seemed pretty clear that voters were far more interested in liberal-moderate governance rather than a conservative executive, yet the vote-splitting allowed Governor Paul LePage to claim a plurality with only 38% of the vote. And in electing Gov. LePage, Maine wasn't receiving a run of the mill New England Republican - LePage came out of nowhere to win the Republican primary on the back of a surprisingly strong tea party showing, and even during the campaign, Gov. LePage's crass, non-apologetic, bullying style was on regular display.
If people weren't familiar with LePage last fall, they certainly are now - he has kept his rhetoric outrageous, followed in the footsteps of Walker & Co., and even spearheaded his attack on mural's at the Maine Department of Labor. Not only has he been ineffectual, but he's been a caricature of a governor.
So how, in a New England state like Maine, does a guy like LePage get elected? After sifting through the data, I've come to my conclusion - the Democratic brand in Maine is terribly weak. In a generic, state election, the LDI suggests that Maine Democrats only possess a 52-48 edge over Republicans.