Back on Monday, I released the Ohio District Index, and in the article, I tried to take some guesses at what kind of blowback Republicans were looking at in response to the right-wing policy agenda they've been pushing this year. While no one is out there polling state legislative districts, given the "wave" nature of the 2010 elections, I think we can learn a lot about voter's preferences from their souring opinion on Governor John Kasich. People who bought into the Republican promises last fall have been changing their minds fast, and my guess is that the result will be serious changes in legislative preferences.
So when I published my article Monday, I looked at results from a mid-March PPP poll, where they found a 17 point swing from Gov. Kasich to former Governor Ted Strickland, if the election were held again today. While its a rather crude measurement, I took the most Democratic seat a Republican held (R+16), and said that if you tack on 17 points for Democrats, and have them win all the seats more Democratic than that, you would pretty much wipe away Republican house gains from 2010.
Well, PPP just brought new results back from the field, and they suggest that the public has turned on Gov. Kasich even more. Unlike in Wisconsin, where Governor Scott Walker has fired up his base with his actions, Kasich is failing to inspire anything among his party faithful, and the result is a staggering 33-56 approval rating (also worth checking out - they find 45% of voters in favor of a constitutional amendment enshrining collective bargaining rights).