The political tide has turned substantially in Ohio thanks to the missteps of Governor John Kasich.
Not only is senior Senator Sherrod Brown well ahead, but so is President Barack Obama - by margins ranging from 6 to 16 points over his four leading opponents.
Public Policy Polling (3/10-13, Ohio voters):
Barack Obama (D-inc): 46
Mitt Romney (R): 40Barack Obama (D-inc): 48
Mike Huckabee (R): 41Barack Obama (D-inc): 50
Newt Gingrich (R): 38Barack Obama (D-inc): 52
Sarah Palin (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Critical to Obama's rise in the polls is his status among independents: he leads all Republicans among independents except for Romney, whom he trails among independents by 2.
Is Obama out of the woods in Ohio? Certainly not. His approval is a middling 47/46 (though this is the first time in six PPP surveys dating back to June of 2009 that he's in positive territory), and among independents he's underwater at 39% approval, 49% disapproval. Fortunately for him, the unpopularity of the four Republicans polled means he's well ahead of them for the time being.
It wouldn't be impossible for a Republican to beat him in Ohio, but the GOP will have to find someone a whole lot more popular than their current frontrunners.
Needless to say, if the Republicans don't capture Ohio's 18 electoral votes, it's unlikely they'll be able to win the presidency in 2012. It's hard to see the GOP losing in Ohio and compensating by winning a more Democratic-leaning state like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.