Former Vice President Joe Biden had a great night on South Carolina. Good for him ! He is at 50 pledged delegates, 8 behind Senator Bernie Sanders who has 58 pledged delegates (AP) . For a couple of days anyway, Joe Biden can lay claim to having the most votes. However, that will revert back to Senator Bernie Sanders in a large way on Super Tuesday. The simple fact is that Joe Biden only has one office in the entire state. Senator Bernie Sanders has blanketed the state. California has 416 pledged delegates up for grabs. 538 expects Senator Bernie Sanders to grab 227 pledged delegates from California on Super Tuesday while Joe Biden will only grab about 80 pledged delegates. That means that Senator Bernie Sanders is expected to net about 150 pledged delegates over Joe Biden just from California. Texas has 228 pledged delegates and Senator Bernie Sanders showed his strength among Hispanic voters in Nevada and there was a very large turnout there. He is expected to dominate Texas and grab the lion’s share of the pledged delegates from there. 538 projects Senator Bernie Sanders to grab 90 pledged delegates from Texas, more than Joe Biden who is only expected to obtain 70. This will net Senator Bernie Sanders another 20 pledged delegates over Joe Biden. Together, the two states will give Senator Bernie Sanders about another 170 pledged delegates over Joe Biden. Senator Bernie Sanders may net another 50 pledged delegates out of the other states. So, we can expect perhaps a 250 pledged delegate advantage for Senator Bernie Sanders over Joe Biden. This was posted prior to South Carolina and Joe Biden’s large victory in South Carolina due to his dominance among African American voters. There are several states with a relatively large African American electorate which will vote on Super Tuesday. Joe Biden’s momentum won’t have been captured by any polls in Super Tuesday states. The moderate Pete Buttigieg has dropped out. Tom Steyer has also dropped out. Bloomberg has been projected to win 200 pledged delegates. Joe Biden’s resurgence along with Bloomberg’s apparent reduction might affect Super Tuesday as well.
And then there will be states like Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Georgia that will follow Super Tuesday and these states will affect whatever comes out of Super Tuesday.
Right now according to 538, the probability that no candidate has a majority is 2 in 3. So, their model foresees a brokered convention. They currently foresee Senator Bernie Sanders getting about 1600 pledged delegates and Joe Biden getting about 1400 pledged delegates. The moderate mayor Michael Bloomberg may get 650 pledged delegates. The progressive Senator Warren is estimated to get about 250 pledged delegates. The amount of pledged delegates needed to get a majority is 1991, a little less than 2000. The probability that Senator Bernie Sanders will get a majority of pledged delegates is seen as 1 in 4, twice the probability of Joe Biden. Right now, their model would foresee Senator Sanders having 300 more than Joe Biden, but 400 pledged delegates short of a majority. If we have a brokered convention, moderates like Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden might join their delegates together and progressives might join together.
If I were estimating, I might expect Senator Bernie Sanders to net 300 or more pledged delegates out of Super Tuesday.
A brokered convention may be likely.
