Progressives, there are two progressive candidates left in the race and there are two moderates among the four top tier candidates. The two moderate candidates are Former Vice President Joe Biden and current US Senator from Minnesota Amy Klobuchar. The two progressive candidates are US Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren and US Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders.
If progressives are divided, then Former Vice President Joe Biden has a small but clear lead over any other candidate in the race. He has a 1 in 2 probability of becoming the nominee whereas Senator Bernie Sanders has a 31% chance of becoming the nominee. My first choice, Senator Elizabeth Warren only has a 5% chance of becoming the nominee. However, Senator Bernie Sanders has moved up in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls which if he won both make the 538 machine believe that he has a 50% chance of winning Nevada.
Here is a very close paraphrase of Geoffrey Skelley from 538 in a short podcast which I linked to above. Sanders is leading in every poll from 5 to 12 points in New Hampshire. Sanders did win Iowa in 2016. Since 1976 Iowa caucuses, no candidate has won both Iowa and New Hampshire and not become the nominee. However, Senator Bernie Sanders is not a favorite of the Democratic Party Establishment and the proportional allocation of delegates means that this is not certain despite how unlikely it looks from an historical perspective.
I would also add that Former Vice President Joe Biden’s strength among people of color and African Americans in particular and Senator Bernie Sanders’ relative weakness with both groups also mitigate against certainty. Furthermore, both states are very white, rural and sparsely populated states which are like Senator Bernie Sanders’ home state of Vermont. Moreover, Vermont is contiguous with New Hampshire. Therefore, one would expect Senator Bernie Sanders to do well in those two states.
In addition, 538 says that Iowa is still very much up for grabs between Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Vice President Joe Biden. I think that Former Vice President Joe Biden is much more likely to underperform his Iowa poll numbers than overperform them given the lack of enthusiasm for him in Iowa and his relatively weak operation there.
Since Senator Elizabeth Warren is fading, that would seem to leave only one real progressive left in the race. The question for progressives who have not been supporting Senator Bernie Sanders is whether their ideology is more important or either their view of his electability and personality / personnel conflicts is more important. There is no shortage of progressives on Daily Kos who dislike Senator Bernie Sanders as a choice to be the nominee because of (1) the people Senator Bernie Senators picked to staff his campaign, particularly in the communications department (2) the temperament and personality / attitude of the candidate (3) their view of his electability since they believe that Senator Bernie Sanders’ poll numbers against Donald Trump will drop precipitously after Donald Trump and the Republicans put out attack ads that tie Senator Bernie Sanders to unpopular view and unpopular people and unpopular things.
In particular, these people are afraid of Senator Bernie Sanders being portrayed as a socialist. The response to these fears when they are vocalized is that Trump and the Republicans would portray any Democratic nominee as a socialist. However, none of the other candidates ever were a socialist and none of them are currently Democratic Socialists. Senator Bernie Sanders was a socialist who believed that government ought to “own the means of production”. Senator Bernie Sanders is currently a Democratic Socialist. While that is different than being a socialist, these people fear that this detail would not matter to most low information voters. These people know that Trump and the Republicans can put up videos of Senator Bernie Sanders acknowledging that he is a socialist (when he was) when he was on the Today show shortly after winning a race for mayor in Burlington Vermont by 8 votes and a video of his honeymoon in Moscow and videos of him calling himself a Democratic Socialist to this very day. These people believe that even though Senator Bernie Sanders is not a socialist today, too many independents and others would be turned against him when they say such ads. These ads would turn off too many voters, a great many of whom are low information voters, for Senator Bernie Sanders to win. While it might not hurt Senator Bernie Sanders with young people who are less likely to vote, it would hurt him with older voters who are more likely to vote.
If progressives don’t unite, then Former Vice President Joe Biden will almost certainly be our nominee. In my view, Senator Bernie Sanders has far better policies. Are policies more important or is personality more important ? Are policies more important or the ability to select quality people for the administration ? Are policies more important or perceived electability ? It has been said that personnel is policy. Senator Bernie Sanders might do a better job at selecting personnel if he is elected president. We don’t know for certain what the effects of the attack ads mentioned above would do to Senator Bernie Sanders’ poll numbers. It is only an educated guess, but it is possible that Senator Bernie Sanders could retain his poll numbers after such attack ads. On the other hand, right now, the state head to head general election polls only give Senator Bernie Sanders a narrow lead. A drop of even 3 points might make him unable to win the electoral college. A candidate could have the best policies in the world, but if he is unable to win the election it really doesn’t matter.
In the end the question seems to become are progressives willing to take a big risk and get a potentially big reward if Senator Bernie Sanders wins or are they willing to accept a very moderate / conservative Joe Biden for up to eight years ? You know that you are getting a candidate who despite his gaffes is more likely to win the battleground states that will determine the electoral college in Former Vice President Joe Biden, but you are also getting a very, very moderate candidate. I believe that we would get much more progressive people nominated to important posts in a President Bernie Sanders’ administration. Think of the people he would pick for the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of Treasury, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Attorney General ,…
Let’s think too about the issues. President Bernie Sanders is more likely to pick better Justices for the Supreme Court by a wide, wide margin in my view. There will be no doubt that a President Bernie Sanders would appoint Supreme Court Justices who would protect the holding of Roe and a woman’s choice. A President Bernie Sanders, in my view, truly understands the dangers of climate change and is much more likely to address it with strong enough policies to combat it successfully. He is less likely to support hydraulic fracturing (fracking) . People don’t often realize the importance of a very good Secretary of Commerce, but this is the Department responsible for the new census. A President Sanders would fight for Medicare for All. We might end up with only a public option, but we would at least fight for it and make the argument for it and that alone will make it more likely that we will eventually get Medicare for All. A President Bernie Sanders would fight for big, structural reform whereas Former Vice President Joe Biden would mean a return to the status quo of 2008.
If progressives unite despite some misgivings, then there is a decent chance of winning the nomination. If Senator Bernie Sanders and his supporters here want to win the nomination, I would think that they would start trying to mend fences with the progressives that they need to win over in order to win the nomination. If Senator Bernie Sanders becomes the nominee, then I would think that they would really need to win over the supporters of Former Vice President Joe Biden in order to defeat Donald Trump in the general election. If they continue to alienate and antagonize their fellow progressives, the supporters of Senator Bernie Sanders will be making it much less likely that Senator Bernie Sanders can become the nominee. And if the progressives who don’t currently support Senator Bernie Sanders want a progressive to be the nominee instead of a moderate, then they may need to prepare themselves to support Senator Bernie Sanders.
Will progressives unite behind one progressive candidate or will they remain divided with enough of them backing a moderate for the moderate to win ? I am one of those progressives who supports Senator Elizabeth Warren who has concerns about Senator Bernie Sanders and I still hope that she wins. However, I know that right now, it looks like it is Former Vice President Joe Biden vs Senator Bernie Sanders. I am a persuadable. Others may not be, but I am.