According to the state head to head general election polling, Biden seems clearly the strongest candidate. I say that even though Senator Warren is my first choice. Having said that, the polls could very well change since we have almost ten months until the general election. We have not even had the first election in the Democratic Presidential Primary. The candidate(s) who win elections in the primary will probably move up in general election polls due to positive press. Moreover, as the primary continues on, the candidates will become better known and that too could boost their general election polls. Finally, when we finally have a nominee, then both parties’ voters will probably return home coalescing around their parties’ nominees. So, the current head to head state general election polls are likely to underestimate our nominee’s ultimate strength. That being said, right now my best guess based upon current state head to head general election polls would be that we would slightly lose the electoral college vote, 270 to 268. This would mean that everything is the same except we win back Pennsylvania and Michigan. Maine remains split and Trump gets the rural electoral college vote and that wins him reelection.
The states that will be contested are Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.
New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota are solidly blue after 4 years of thing. The most recent outfit to poll PA is not a very good one, C/D rated. The next most recent is rated A plus rated pollster Muhlenberg College and they give Warren, Biden, and Sanders all a lead of 5. However, NY Times / Sienna College A+ rated pollster calls it up for grabs — Trump 1 over Sanders, Trump 2 over Warren, (both of them were using their likely voter screen) but Biden by 1 for LV ; for RV, they see it Sanders up 1, Warren tied, and Biden up 3. I agree with 538 that Biden is the most likely nominee and he has roots in PA . Although I would not rely upon general election polling now to determine electability, it does agree with Biden being strong in PA. After the 2018 results, I still see PA returning to our nominee.
That leaves us at 269 except if we lose the one rural electoral college vote which would put us at 268, a narrow loss. This means we win the electoral college if we win any of the following states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, or North Carolina.
Current polling puts Wisconsin tied or with Trump up by the narrowest of margins except Biden barely beats Trump by 4 and Sanders beats him by 1 according to the A/B rated pollster Marquette Law School . Fox News (A minus rated) gives all Democratic candidates that they polled (Warren+2, Buttigieg +1, Biden+5, Sanders+4) a narrow lead. Arizona leans towards Trump unless Biden is the nominee. PPP gives Trump a 3 point lead over Buttigieg, a 2 point lead over Warren, a 1 point lead over Sanders, and tied with Biden. Sienna College / NY Times (A plus rated pollster) calls the LV : Trump + 4 over Sanders, Trump and Warren are tied, and Biden leads Trump by 2. For the RV, they see it: Trump by 1 over Sanders, Warren leads Trump by 2, and Biden leads Trump by 5.
This means we have a decent chance of winning Wisconsin and / or Arizona. Either of these would put the electoral college out of Thing’s grasp if the previous findings hold: PA is the state most in jeopardy, but the others already show us winning and these numbers should only improve. We won PA in 2018 and we would have to be considered favorites to win it this time.
The remaining states are reaches, but possible. Let’s look at Ohio next. PPP sees Warren and Sanders tied with Trump in Ohio. Trump beats Buttigieg by 4 but loses to Biden by 2. Another pollster which is unrated gives us good polls (we lead in all of them except Buttigieg who is tied) , but without a rating (and a bias) I won’t list them. All the remaining most recent polls show a lead by all Democrats polled. Emerson College did us a solid (but perhaps this makes it leading) by polling our 3 main candidates against Pence as well as against Trump. I won’t bother with the leads against Pence, but I will list the leads against Trump: Warren +3, Sanders + 6, and Biden +5. I frankly have a hard time believing this, but if we do win Ohio, then clearly Trump is done. I believe that Ohio will return, unfortunately to Trump.
Let’s look at Florida next. We will skip the B/C biased poll and move on to the next one (538 labels them as biased, not me). Florida Atlantic University (B/C) sees it even for Buttigieg, Warren by 2, Sanders by 6, and Biden by 3. Mason Dixon (B+) calls it for Trump by 4 over Buttigieg, Trump by 9 over Warren, Trump by 5 over Sanders, and Biden leads by 2. The polling on Florida is unclear now, but I believe that it also will return to Trump.
Next, let’s consider Georgia. Mason / Dixon (still rated B+) sees Georgia for Trump in a big way over all Democrats, over Buttigieg by 9, over Warren by 14, over Sanders by 10, and over Biden by 7. SUSA (A) calls it for Trump by 4 over Buttigieg, Trump by 2 over Bloomberg, Sanders leads by 3, Warren leads by 1, and Biden leads by 4. I suspect Georgia leans towards Trump although the polling is conflicted.
Finally, let’s examine North Carolina. Fox News (still A minus) sees it: Trump by 4 over Buttigieg, Trump by 1 over Warren, Sanders by 1, and Biden by 2. Sienna College / NY Times Upshot (A +) reads it all narrowly for Trump: on the LV screen, Trump by 4 over Warren, Trump by 4 over Sanders, and Trump by 2 over Biden. On the RV screen, they see it Trump by 3 over Warren, Trump by 3 over Sanders, and Trump by 2 over Biden.
In several states, the polling looks better for us than is likely to be the case (Georgia, Florida and Ohio ). In other cases, the polling is mixed. In general, Biden is still polling noticeably better than any other candidate. Having said that, Sanders is polling pretty well and if the polls are accurate, he would currently be leading in the electoral college. Biden and Sanders are clearly now polling much better than Warren or Buttigieg. I think that it is highly likely that one of our candidates’ general election polls will head south dramatically after a series of negative ads against him.
In general, I think it is more likely for most candidates to see their head to head general election state polls improve after they win elections during the primary. I also believe that the candidate who becomes our nominee will see his or her numbers improve after he or she becomes the nominee.
In full disclosure, I support Senator Warren and then Senator Klobuchar.