I know all of us could use a reason (or two ) for hope ! I sure can ! I think our chances of winning are significantly better now than I did even an hour ago. There are three reasons why we have a good chance of winning ! Two of them I knew about, but I needed this third one ! It does not mean we can get complacent ! If we do get complacent, then we will lose even with these reasons. However, after what happened last presidential election and with what is at stake and how bad Trump is, I do not see complacency coming back. I also want to point out that the state head to head general election polls are all over the map. We do NOT have this in the bag. Now, ready for some good news ? I am going to list and very briefly discuss them from weakest reason to strongest !
1. Republicans for the rule of Law . This is a large group of significant Republicans who have held important positions within the party. They already have posted ads against Trump !
2. Many people here really do not like Michael Bloomberg. I oppose his “stop and frisk” policy. People are upset that he is running for president. He has recruited a ton of organizers and part of how he has done it and gotten quality is because he is paying them $70,000 a year , twice what the normal going rate is. You think who cares, but he has promised to keep them in the field and keep paying them no matter who the nominee is until the election ! All of these organizers are going to be working for our nominee no matter who it is. He has run ads introducing himself all across the country. However, he is running a ton of television ads that do not mention his own name and simply attack Trump in battleground states ! All of these ads against Trump will hurt Trump in these battleground states. So, we have the organizers and the ads that will be punishing Trump and helping our nominee no matter who it is in the battleground states !
3. This new group, this new Super Pac, The Lincoln Project founded by George Conway and Rick Wilson, will be attacking Trump and supporting our nominee no matter who it is. Their specialty is running dirty, tough attack ads. Nicolle Wallace said that this is the secret to how conservatives win elections. They are committed to hitting him hard where it hurts with huge amounts of television ads. They are going to remind the farmers in Wisconsin and Iowa how badly Trump has hurt them because of his unnecessary trade war. They are going to advertise against him in North Carolina and in Pennsylvania where they will expose Trump and show the steel workers how Trump has screwed them ! They know what appeals to conservatives and republicans. They know what will move these voters and get them to vote against Trump ! They are also going after every republican senator who is vulnerable and is defending and protecting Trump !
Remember, Trump only won by about 80,000 votes spread out in three states. He barely won last time and he had Comey’s help last time. He had a very unpopular opponent last time. Some people thought that he would not be as bad as Clinton or as bad as we told them and now they realize that he is. We don’t need a huge amount of voters in order to get the win. We want to win as big as possible and we need to win as big as possible. NBC had a poll out and I, frankly, find it different than any other polls that I have seen. However, let’s suppose that it is correct: 48% of voters are certain to vote against him , 34% of voters are certain to vote for him, and they say the remaining 18% are soft republican men. If we have a third party vote that takes more from our nominee than Trump, then that would be trouble. If the third party is much smaller, more like it is normally, then we could be okay. We need to win one / sixth of those republican men. Now, these voters are not the hard core Trumpists because those are already accounted for in the 34% that they already have that are certain to vote for Trump. So these are more moderates. This Lincoln Project Super Pac and the paid organizers and the ads by Bloomberg against Trump could be and should be enough to get those voters .
That is why I am a little bit more optimistic now than I was even an hour ago.