Ohio’s “brain drain cost the state 2 more young Democratic Voters. How can we win without them?
While driving part-time for Uber/Lyft, I come across many new Boston residents. I met two young, native Ohioans who recently relocated to bluer pastures. Rob, who completed a PhD in Chemistry, and Candy, a lawyer who specializes in Trusts, relocated to Boston. Despite Greater Boston's sky-rocking housing costs, the couple decided this region's booming bio-tech and extensive legal field afforded them far more opportunities for their family.
More importantly, back home, the couple were often frustrated by the lack of education resources available for their disabled child. Massachusetts routinely ranks #1 in education and in the top 5 in resource funding for disabled children. With new higher-paying positions and their beloved little girl already receiving far superior education, these two Democrats are very happy to have “escaped Ohio.”
Subtract two more voters from Ohio's bleeding Democratic registration database. Add two more to a state who hardly needs more Democratic voters to stay blue.
Ohio's "brain drain" is hardly new, and its impact been costing Democrats at both the local and national level.
"Yet young folks are fleeing their hometowns in Ohio, a great exodus of educated, up-and-coming 20-somethings known as the “brain drain.” Ohio is not alone in its fight against the brain drain. In Nebraska, one report suggests that “there are too few challenging, high-paying jobs in the state to snag and retain highly educated workers.” Despite Chicago’s presence, Illinois students are leaving that state for higher education. Kansas Public Radio captured the process and its consequences when it described brain drain as a “scourge” that forces communities to “watch their young people grow up, leave town and never return.
https://www.dispatch.com/opinion/20190215/column-brain-drain-might-leave-local-government-jobs-unfilled
President Obama won Ohio twice. However, his 2012 win was narrower, 50.7-47.7%. In the that year's post-election autopsy we learned,
"Romney’s campaign was certain that minorities would not show up for Obama in 2012 the way they did in 2008."
“We did everything we set out to do,” says a top strategist about the Ohio effort. “We just didn’t expect the African-American vote to be so high.” African-American participation in Ohio jumped from 11 percent of the electorate to 15 percent between the 2008 and 2012 elections. “We could never see that coming. We thought they’d gotten a lot last time.”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2012/11/why-romney-was-surprised-to-lose-his-campaign-had-the-wrong-numbers-bad-assumptions-and-underestimated-barack-obamas-campaign-team.html
While the increased AA Ohio vote was not Romney's only problem, it served as a prime example of their team failing to model the 2012 electorate correctly. On election night, Karl Rowe made a fool out of himself on FOX News, by listening to Team Romney's insistence Obama could not possibly have increased his AA turnout. I've personally veered between extreme bemusement and amusement at Rowe and Romney's ignorance.
In the wake of Clinton's OH 2016 loss, the main focus been on white, working class Obama/Trump voters . The drop in AA turnout from 2012 to 2016 rarely even gets noted here on a Democratic site - a place that really should know better!
While some autopsies did factor in a "youth vote drop," they blamed it on Clinton's overall lack of appeal amongst young voters. This is a valid criticism. However, it fails to take into account all Democrats seeking to win OH state-wide are grappling with the shrinking pool of younger, Democratic leaning voters.
After his 2018 re-election win, even Sherrod Brown agreed there's some cause for concern in an interview with Buzzfeed News, “It’s clearly becoming more conservative, a bit older. We still have too many young people leaving. We don’t have enough people moving in, so it’s increasingly hard."
While the GOP state party seized upon the rapidly aging demographics to tighten their stranglehold, their former GOP governor, John Kasich, wasn't so sanguine about their 2018 sweeping wins. He admitted in a CNN interview, their passage of the controversial "heartbeat abortion bill" could accelerate the mass exodus of college-educated younger voters and cost the state a fortune in future tax revenue.
Rob and Candy had already left Ohio by the time this extremist bill passed. Since they were so friendly and we were trapped in Boston's gridlock traffic for a while, I dared asked their views on the Ohio bill. Rob's a scientist and one of the 3 out of 4 Ph.ds leaving OH. He was pretty frank about being tired of the GOP's anti-science crusades.
Candy's answer was more nuanced. She was raised pro-life and still believes its tenets. However, she'd been voting for Democrats since running up against the OH GOP's frustratingly lack of investment in disabled children.
She agreed to move to Boston, one of the staunchest abortion-rights areas in the country, after visiting our Perkins School for the Blind.
"This is why schools like Perkins School for the Blind and The Learning Center for the Deaf and agencies like The Massachusetts Commission for the Blind (MCB) and The Massachusetts Commission for the Deaf, along with other agencies and professional ASL interpreters, play such an important role in the life of our family. These schools, agencies and professionals are a major component supporting the needs of children who are deaf blind and their families. They have the knowledge and the skills to help us help our children."
https://www.perkins.org/stories/how-perkins-and-other-state-funded-services-helped-my-daughter-thrive
Ohio lost yet another young pro-science, staunch Democrat vote, and, a young pro-life Independent who voted for Democratic candidates.
Ohio -2
Mass +2
Finally, I'm well aware studies show "brain drain" is not limited to the rust belt states. Nor limited to red states either.
In New England, the "Live Free or Die" New Hampshirites, famous for mocking us Mass-holes, tried to address their "brain drain" by openly marketing southern counties as a great haven for those seeking to avoid Boston's sky-rocketing cost of living. Vermont is offering $10,000 to people who move there to work remotely. Maine is offering a tax credit to help college graduates who relocate there repay their college loans.
The OH legislature did pass a bipartisan bill in 2017 to try and reduce its brain drain.
http://www.ohiohouse.gov/john-patterson/press/lawmakers-announce-bipartisan-legislation-to-reduce-ohio-brain-drain
However, less than two years later, OH GOP passed an extremist bill that only reinforced their image as an anti-science state to Ph.ds like Rob. And, failed to address concerns of mothers of disabled children like Candy.
Ohio's loss is Boston's gain. However, this “brain drain” sure doesn't bode well for 2020. Even if we flip every Obama/Trump voter back to TeamBlue AND manage to spike AA turnout to 2012 levels, this is not the same 18-35 electorate anymore.
Let’s not repeat Romney/Rowe’s 2012 mistake of failing to model the electorate correctly.
So Ohio Democratics, where exactly can we make up the significant 18-35 losses?
Are your models factoring in the 18-35 electorate left will be disportionately more non-college educated than in 2012, and thus, likely less Democratic leaning?