Leading Off
●Wisconsin: Conservative Judge Brian Hagedorn holds a 50.25-49.75 lead over Judge Lisa Neubauer, the choice of progressives, following Tuesday’s officially nonpartisan race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a margin of just under 6,000 votes Hagedorn declared victory early Wednesday while Neubauer has not conceded. A vote canvass is expected to be completed next week, after which Neubauer's campaign says it will decide whether to pursue a recount.
Campaign ActionIf Hagedorn’s lead holds, he will flip a seat left open by retiring liberal Justice Shirley Abrahamson and give conservatives a five-to-two majority on the bench. While conservatives will have to play defense a year from now, when Scott Walker appointee Dan Kelly is up for his first election, Hagedorn’s win ensures they’ll retain their majority heading into the next round of redistricting. Barring any unexpected vacancies, the next seat on the court won't be up until 2023, when progressives would get another chance to take the majority if they can defeat Kelly.
Hagedorn's probable victory therefore means the high court likely won't act to protect voting rights by striking down GOP legislators'voter suppression measures and lame-duck power grabs, nor will it act as a check on Republican-led gerrymandering. While Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is positioned to veto any extreme gerrymanders that the Republican-run legislature tries to pass after 2020, the process will likely end up in court. If the state courts wind up overseeing the process, there's a real risk that the Supreme Court would approve maps favoring the GOP.
In addition, if Republicans ever defeat Evers (and hold the legislature), they could engage in mid-decade redistricting, at least for the state's constitutional map. That would allow them to gerrymander freely once again.
This election should serve as a wake-up call for those hoping to use courts to fight for the right to vote and against gerrymandering at the state level. But while this race doesn't appear to have gone as reformers would have liked, five key battleground states will feature supreme court races in 2020 where progressive victories could go a long way toward protecting voting rights and stopping GOP gerrymandering.