A NBC/Marist Poll released today shows that Democrat J.B. Pritzker has a 16 point lead in the race to defeat incumbent Illinois Governor Republican Bruce Rauner. Pritzker is getting 46% against Rauner who has 30% and two minor candidates who have the support of 10% of voters.
Additionally, the poll finds President Donald Trump’s job-approval rating at 31 percent among all Illinois adults; 56 percent disapprove of his job.
The respondents say they want Democrats to control congress by a margin of 49% to 35%. According to Cook’s Political Report, four Illinois US Congressional seats held by Republicans are at risk of switching. Districts Il CD-6 and Il CD-12 are tossups and districts Il CD-13 and Il CD-14 are lean Republican.
The NBC/Marist poll of Illinois was conducted August 12-16 of 831 adults (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.2 percentage points) and 734 registered voters (plus-minus 4.4 percentage points). Respondents were reached by both cell phone and landline phones.
Website 538 gives Marist College Poll an A rating with a Republican lean of 0.5%.
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| State | pollster & Date | Dem | Rep | Margin | Cook Rating | Saboto rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Ask America 6/11 Marist 8/16 | (Pritzker) 36% 46% | (Rauner) 27% 30% | D +11 D +16 | Lean Dem | Lean Dem | |
Minnesota | Emerson 8/11 | (Waltz) 40% | (Johnson) 33% | D +7 | Lean Dem | Lean Dem | |
| Michigan | Gravis 8/16 Emerson 7/21 Marist 7/9 | (Whitmer) 52% 43% 47% | (Schuette) 37% 36% 38% | D +15 D +7 D + 11 | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Wisconsin | PPP 8/16 Emerson 7/28 Marist 7/19 | (Evers) 49% 48% 54% | (Walker) 44% 41% 41% | D +5 D +7 D +13 | Lean Rep | Tossup | |
| Ohio | Marist 6/21 Quinnipiac 6/12 Suffolk 6/11 | (Corday) 42% 42% 43% | (DeWine) 46% 40% 36% | R +4 D +2 D +7 | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Iowa | No recent | (Hubbell) | (Reynolds) | - | Tossup | Tossup | |
Kansas | Remington 7/20 | (Kelly) 36% | (Kobach)-R 35% (Ormand)-I 12% | D +1 | Tossup | Lean Rep | |
| South Dakota | No Information | (Sutton) | (Noem) | Safe Rep | Likely Rep | ||
| Nebraska | No information | (Krist) | (Ricketts) | Safe Rep | Safe Rep |
Pendulum Swings Toward Democrats in Midwest