It is Round One, to fill the unexpired term with a second round in November, but is an interesting indicator, despite its timing during the Summer and the presence of Lord Dampnut’s shining visage last Saturday.
Despite a comparison to Conor Lamb’s election, it has more of the earmarks of a continuing shift.
Ohio’s 12th congressional district is a heavily gerrymandered stretch of land, touching the city and suburbs of Columbus, rural areas east to Zanesville and the foothills of Appalachia.
Republicans controlled the seat for almost four decades – it was held by Kasich for 18 years and then by Tiberi for another 18. In 2016, the district voted for Trump 53-42 percent and reelected Tiberi by a large margin.
But Tiberi resigned in frustration in January, leaving the seat wide open. Because of that, O’Connor and Balderson will face off twice: Once on Tuesday to fill Tiberi’s unexpired term, and again in November to fill the next term.
Despite the 12th District’s solidly red status, O’Connor turned the race into a dead heat, with recent polls showing him tied with Balderson. Early voters gave O’Connor a solid lead heading into election day, though that’ll likely disappear, and political analysts atSabato’s Crystal Ball rated the contest a “toss-up.”
After all, at one moment Trump didn’t know who he was endorsing, and tried to blame the media even though it was likely another error by his minions such as ex-caddy, Dan Scavino.
So, rather than losing support from establishment Republicans who are turning on Trump, it is more likely that Balderson is suffering from a lack of support among Trump loyalists. Why else would Trumpfeel the needto not only travel to Ohio this past Saturday night to campaign for Balderson, but to choose as his venue Leneghan's home county, and then go out of his way to assure his supporters that Balderson "was always my first choice?"
Since this is a district that Trumpwon by 11 pointsin 2016, anything less than a clear victory for Balderson on Tuesday will be spun as a defeat for the Republican Party, and further evidence of a coming Blue Wave in November. If Democrats win or keep the margins close, they will, if nothing else, force Republicans to spend a great deal of money in November trying to take back or keep a district that on paper should not be competitive.
