President Trump, possessor of a “very good brain” and “one of the great memories of all time,” tweeted an endorsement of the wrong candidate in Ohio’s special election Thursday.
“Get out and vote for Steve on Aug 7th,” Trump wrote in a tweet that referenced Representative Steve Stivers. The problem? Stivers isn’t on the ballot. Trump meant to give his endorsement to Ohio state senator Troy Balderson, the Republican nominee for the seat.
Trump eventually deleted the erroneous tweet and replaced it with one mentioning an event Saturday with Balderson.
Trump quickly deleted the tweet, but not before it was retweeted at least 1,400 times and liked by at least 5,200 people. The president later posted a new tweet mentioning Balderson, calling him "a truly talented future Congressman."
Stivers is set to face Democrat Rick Neal in November. However, as the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, he's been involved with Balderson's race - including reportedly advising Balderson last month to spend more time fundraising and less time focusing on his legislative duties.
While Trump was confused about who is running, Balderson made a gaffe of his own earlier this week about the date of the special election, telling a crowd of supporters, "I need you August 8th."
The fact that they need to send Trump to this district proves the GO is running scared and can’t afford to make any more mistakes. Monmouth University’s latest poll shows that Danny O'Connor (D. OH-12) has indeed closed the gap and gained a ton of momentum:
The race to fill the open seat in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District has shifted from a Republican advantage last month to a toss-up now, according to the Monmouth University Poll. Different voter models suggest that the race could go either way. The underlying GOP-lean of this district benefits State Senator Troy Balderson. But an increase in Democratic enthusiasm and a shift in independent voter preferences have boosted the standing of Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor.
In the special election to be held next Tuesday, Balderson the Republican has 44% support and O’Connor the Democrat has 43% support among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 87% of all registered voters in the district). Joe Manchik – the Green Party candidate who got nearly 4% of the vote two years ago – earns just 2%. A relatively large 11% remain undecided. A little over one month ago, Balderson had a 43% to 33% advantage among all potential voters.
Monmouth also looked at the race using three possible turnout models. A standard model that looks like a typical midterm voter pool shows the race basically tied at 46% for Balderson and 45% for O’Connor. Last month, this same model gave the Republican a sizable 48% to 39% advantage. Balderson benefits more under a lower turnout model where only the most reliable voters show up, holding a slight 49% to 44% edge over O’Connor under this scenario. Still, this same model gave the Republican a much healthier 50% to 35% lead just one month ago. In a Democratic “surge” model akin to turnout patterns that have been seen in some but not all special elections held since 2017, O’Connor has 46% and Balderson has 45%. O’Connor trailed in this model last month by 39% to 46% for Balderson. None of the leads in any of these likely voter models is statistically significant.
“This race has definitely tightened in the past month. This is similar to the trend we saw in our polling of the Pennsylvania special election earlier this year. That race ended up with an electorate that looked more like a standard midterm turnout,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Independent voters are a key factor in the shift in polling since last month, with many moving from being undecided to favoring the Democrat. Currently, independents prefer O’Connor over Balderson by 48% to 32%, with 17% undecided. The independent vote in June’s poll showed a similar level of support for Balderson (33%), but it had a lower vote share for O’Connor (30%) and a larger group who were undecided (33%).
Trump and the GOP fear this is going to be a repeat of Conor Lamb’s (D. PA-18) surprise victory back in March. There are a lot of signs that indicate just that:
Trump plans to touch down in the district this weekend to rally support for Republican Troy Balderson, who is running for the seat former Rep. Pat Tiberi vacated at the end of January. House Republicans are also lending their support in the form of millions of dollars via their official campaign arm and a Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC. House Democrats haven’t gotten involved to the same degree, though their campaign arm did make a late splash in the form of a mid-six-figure TV ad buy backing their nominee, Danny O’Connor.
You don’t need to squint to see a contest that looks a lot like the special election Democrat Conor Lamb won this spring. That district included parts of suburban Pittsburgh as well as more rural areas of Pennsylvania; this one includes suburban Columbus as well as more rural parts of Ohio. Trump won both districts comfortably, and O’Connor has largely been working from the same moderate playbook Lamb used to win his race. O’Connor, for instance, doesn’t support single-payer health care, abolishing the U.S. Immigration and Custom Enforcement agency, or electing Nancy Pelosi as House speaker. (Though he did create a headache for himself recently when he accidentally stated the obvious: He’d vote for Pelosi over a Republican.)
Just as Lamb did, O’Connor has closed the gap considerably coming down the home stretch, adding to the suspense and boosting national interest. A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed a statistical dead heat—Balderson 44 percent, O’Connor 43 percent among potential voters—a 10-point swing in the Democrat’s favor since the same pollsters asked the question in June. Non-partisan handicappers, likewise, see the race as toss-up.
There are some big differences, however. Ohio’s 12th District isn’t quite as red as Pennsylvania’s old 18th District. Trump won the latter by 20 points in 2016, but the former by “just” 11 points. The western Pennsylvania seat opened up after GOP Rep. Tim Murphy resigned in disgrace; the central Ohio one opened up after Tiberi resigned to move home to lead a business group. And then there are the candidates themselves. Lamb looks like something his party might design in a lab to win a red district, while his opponent was largely seen as a dud by his own party; O’Connor and Balderson each fall safely in between.
Another wrinkle: Balderson has the support of both Trump and one of the few remaining #NeverTrump Republicans still in office in Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who held this seat before Tiberi. Kasich recently agreed to cut an ad for Balderson, and his support might be enough to convince some slice of Trump-skeptical conservatives to vote GOP on Tuesday. Alternatively, Kasich Republicans could be turned off when Trump comes to town on Saturday.
And Democrats are closing out this race with a very strong attack against Balderson:
Republicans have tried to make House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)an issue in Tuesday’s special congressional election in Ohio. And now one Democratic group wants to do the same with embattled Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).
American Bridge 21st Century, a liberal PAC, on Thursday launched a five-figure digital ad bashing Republican candidate Troy Balderson for remaining mum on whether he supports Jordan’s intended run for Speaker of the House.
The ad, titled “Does Troy Balderson Stand with the Victims, or with Jim Jordan?,” references the mounting accusations that the conservative lawmaker turned a blind eye to sexual abuse that took place at Ohio State University during his tenure as assistant wrestling coach. Jordan has denied those claims.
This tactic reflects one employed by Republican groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC closely aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), who have sought to portray Democratic candidate Danny O’Connor—Balderson’s rival—as a kind of liberal stooge for Pelosi. Jordan does not have the same high name identification as Pelosi but perhaps is more widely known in Ohio.