A number of special elections to the House of representatives have happened this year so far.
The results were as follows:
| D Hold | 1 |
| D Gain | 1 |
| R Hold | 6 |
| R Gain | 0 |
Overall, Democrats gained 1 seat in these special elections, while Republicans have kept 6. Meanwhile, in the sole Democratic seat up for a special election, Democrats held the seat.
Here is a list of results:
| District | 2008Pres | 2012Pres | 2016Pres | Special | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS-04 | R+19 | R+26 | R+27 | R+07 | R Hold |
| MT-01 | R+02 | R+14 | R+21 | R+06 | R Hold |
| CA-34 | D+58 | D+69 | D+73 | Uncontested | D Hold |
| GA-06 | R+19 | R+23 | R+02 | R+04 | R Hold |
| SC-05 | R+11 | R+12 | R+19 | R+03 | R Hold |
| UT-03 | R+38 | R+59 | R+24 | R+32 | R Hold |
| PA-18 | R+11 | R+17 | R+20 | D+01 | D Gain |
| AZ-08 | R+22 | R+25 | R+21 | R+05 | R Hold |
OH-12 | R+09 | R+11 | R+11 | ??? | ??? |
Overall, other than CA-34, which was an easy Democratic hold, OH-12 has the weakest Republican figures.
With an average margin of victory of only 10 points for the Republicans, this puts the District on the list as the most competitive on paper so far.
Furthermore, in all 3 of the most recent presidential elections, OH-12 gave Republicans a smaller margin than did PA-18, and PA-18, as we all know, ended up flipping.
In addition, the swing in KS-04 and AZ-08 using any of the 3 elections as a baseline, would be enough to flip OH-12, if the swing there is identical.
In 2008, only MT-01 was closer; in 2016, only GA-06 was closer, and in 2012, this District was the closest of all the Districts where there will be special elections.