By winning PA-18 by 19.7 percentage points more than Trump won that district, Democrat Conor Lamb showed that similar rust-belt districts (like those in northern Ohio), even if they are heavily gerrymandered (like those in Ohio), might swing to Democrats this year. The Cleveland Plain Dealer just looked at 4 northern Ohio districts that now look a lot better than they did before.
Pennsylvania special election shows Ohio congressional districts could be competitive
… the 18th Congressional District in Pennsylvania has some striking similarities to several districts in Ohio.
So much so that Sabato's Crystal Ball, which does election analysis and political handicapping at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, downgraded Republicans' chances in four Ohio races - two near Columbus and two near Cleveland. ...
The article then profiles these 4 districts, presenting how they are similar and how they differ from PA-18, with comparison graphs by education and income:
- OH-12 (Columbus northern suburbs plus rural areas): Republican Pat Tiberi resigned to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable; 9 Republicans and 8 Democrats are running for this seat. Trump won this district by 11.3 percentage points. This district has a 2017 Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+7 while PA-18 was R+11.
- OH-14 (Cleveland eastern suburbs to the Pennsylvania border): Democrat Betsy Rader, who is a civil rights lawyer and mother of 2 gay sons, is challenging incumbent Republican David Joyce. Trump won this district by 11.5 points. 2017 PVI = R+5.
- OH-15 (Columbus southern suburbs plus some rural areas): Republican Steve Stivers is being challenged by 3 Democrats; leading the pack seems to be Democrat Rick Neal, who is a former peace corps volunteer and is now a gay father of 2 black daughters. Trump won this district by 15.4 points. 2017 PVI = R+7.
- OH-16 (Cleveland western suburbs plus rural areas): Republican Jim Renacci is running for the Senate; 7 Democrats and 3 Republicans are running for this seat. Trump won this district by 16.6 points. 2017 PVI = R+8.
The Ohio primary elections are on May 8 so we’ll know in a few months exactly who the candidates in November will be.