Leading Off
●Texas: Like their brethren in North Carolina, Republican legislators in Texas have been embroiled in racial gerrymandering lawsuits almost since the moment they passed new redistricting plans following the 2010 census. Earlier in 2017, a federal district court panel ruled that the GOP’s 2011 congressional and state House maps were intentionally discriminatory against black and Latino voters. Because Republicans had already redrawn those maps in 2013, following court rulings that blocked the 2011 districts from ever taking effect, there will be an expedited July trial over the current maps.
Campaign ActionWith the Supreme Court dealing Republicans a major blow in North Carolina (see our North Carolina item below), there’s a good chance Texas Republicans will also suffer a courtroom defeat that could lead to yet another set of new maps in 2018. In late May, the district court invited Republicans to voluntarily redraw their maps, and some Republican congressman reportedly even begged GOP Gov. Greg Abbott to call a special session in order to do so. However, the governor has refused to budge, raising the risk of the court stepping in and drawing the lines itself.
It's not clear why Abbott's being so stubborn. It's possible Republicans view a redraw as an admission of wrongdoing—or that they're hoping for a better outcome at the Supreme Court. Yet whatever the reason, this intransigence is potentially to the detriment of Abbott’s own party, since a court-drawn congressional map could have a devastating impact on Republicans and potentially cost them several congressional seats in 2018.
As we explained previously, March’s court ruling only specifically faulted a handful seats, but since so many surrounding seats would have to be redrawn to correct the problematic districts, the possible range of outcomes is very broad. If plaintiffs prevail and GOP legislators ultimately redraw the lines, Republicans could limit Democrats to a gain of just two or three seats. However, if the court implements new lines of its own, that number could rise to something more like a five-seat pickup for Democrats, in what Republicans have aptly called their “Armageddon” scenario.