Since 1964, Ohio has given its electoral votes to the eventual winner of every presidential election, making it both a swing state and a bellwether for the election as a whole.
But, this year there’s a decent chance that Hillary will win the election but lose Ohio. If she loses it by a significant margin, Donald Trump’s presidential dreams remain alive for a few more hours until he gets swept away by the Left Coast blue tsunami. If Clinton wins Ohio by a significant margin, it’s a potential blowout election in the making. Pundits and political geeks off all persuasions will be watching Ohio closely to see which way it breaks.
For those not familiar with the state, this is your primer on Ohio and its politics.
Demographics: As a whole, the state isn't growing as fast as other states. Its population is older and mostly white. It doesn’t have a significant Hispanic population.
82.7% White
12.2% African American
3.1% Hispanic
2.1% Mixed
1.7% Asian
Most African Americans are clustered in Ohio’s big cities, as are most Hispanics. The Hispanics are mostly Mexicans living in Toledo and Columbus, and Puerto Ricans living in Cleveland and Columbus.
Over 73% of Ohioans are Christians, of which about 26% describe themselves as being Evangelical, and 18% are Catholic. Both of those percentages are a bit lower than the national average. 22% described themselves as being religiously unaffiliated. 1% each identify as Jewish, Muslim or Buddhist. That means that the conservative evangelical presence in the state isn’t as extreme as in other places, and that there are a fair number of left-leaning non-religious folks. More or less, the excessively pious and the sleep-in-on Sundays crowd cancel each other out.
Geography: Ohio has three major metro areas, angling northeast to southwest along Interstate I-71 from the Ohio river to Lake Erie. From north to south, they are Cleveland (Cuyahoga County), Columbus (Franklin County), and Cincinnati (Hamilton County). Other metro areas of note include Toledo (Lucas County) and Dayton (Montgomery County). Wright-Patterson Air Force base is located just east of Dayton and is a significant presence in the region. On county-scale maps of voting patterns, these cities stand out as bright blue dots against a sea of maroon and red.
All these cities are classic Rust Belt towns; each one has at least one giant abandoned manufacturing plant and blocks with abandoned houses. But, they also have universities, museums, healthcare facilities, and other attractions which allowed them to transition their economies to retail, healthcare, and skilled manufacturing. The larger cities are reviving and are attracting people back into previously blighted areas. In most cases, Ohio’s suburbs have seen significant growth over the last 30 years and are doing fine.
All the larger cities have a high percentage of African Americans, Hispanics, and immigrants living in the older urban core areas, although the black and brown presence in the suburbs — especially inner suburbs — is growing. Whites mostly live in the surrounding suburbs, although younger whites are moving back to city centers.
The Columbus area has seen tremendous growth, as have the counties just to the north of Cincinnati. These areas have a younger and more ethnically diverse population than elsewhere in the state.
The rest of Ohio consists of classic Midwestern farms and small towns. These areas haven’t done nearly as well economically as the rest of the state. Towns and counties which were heavily dependent on manufacturing, such as Youngstown, near the Pennsylvania border, are in particularly bad shape. They have an older, almost entirely white population and have steadily been losing population for decades.
Politics: Republicans have dominated politics in the state since 2010, and control both chambers of the statehouse, as well as most elected state-wide offices. The governor, John Kasich, has successfully masqueraded as a moderate while pushing very conservative social and economic policies. But, to his credit he has repeatedly denounced Trump, and isn’t utterly crazy as Republican politicians go. The secretary of state, John Husted, is a nasty piece of work who has been using every means possible to suppress the Democratic vote. Unfortunately, neither is up for reelection this year.
As a very rough guide, northern Ohio is more liberal, while southern Ohio is more conservative, with the north-south divide occurring along the I-70 corridor. Some political scientists have proposed that there are "five Ohios" with distinct regions to the northeast (Cleveland), northwest (Toledo), southwest (rural areas along the Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky borders), southeast (Cincinnati), and Center (Columbus).
This interactive map is a bit dated but still gives a good breakdown of voting trends and demographics:
US President: Ohio is a swing state without any swing counties. It’s a winner-take-all state worth 18 electoral votes. Political leanings in the state are very predictable — the cities go for Democrats by a huge margin while the suburbs and rural areas are mostly Republican. Democratic victories in Ohio depend on running up the score in the metro areas. Republican victories depend on boosting the suburban and rural vote while suppressing the urban vote. As usual, Democratic voters are a fickle lot and only show up in presidential election years.
It’s hard to read the tea leaves for Ohio’s presidential preferences based on polling for down-ballot races, or even primary races. Clinton took 53% of the Democratic primary vote, while Kasich handily beat Trump in the Republican primary due to the “native son” effect.
Interestingly, however, most of the counties along the Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky borders voted for Trump over Kasich in the Republican primary. Those areas are prime Trump territory, and will probably vote for him by an overwhelming margin.
Early voting totals for Ohio are lagging behind 2012, but leaks from the Clinton campaign indicate that she’s doing a good job of mobilizing the voters she needs, especially in Cleveland and Columbus. Pay close attention to voting trends in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties, as well as the other counties I mentioned above. If they break for Clinton by a huge margin, with numbers of voters well above 2012 totals, then Clinton wins it.
Unofficial voter turnout for the big counties in Ohio in 2012:
Cuyahoga (Cleveland) 611,512
Franklin (Columbus) 541,751
Hamilton (Cincinnati) 402,572
Lucas (Toledo) 200,850
Mongomery (Dayton) 254,266
There were 5,489,028 total votes cast for president in the state in 2012, and if total votes in 2016 exceed that number it’s probably good news for Clinton.
Given that most suburban Republicans in the state are more or less moderate in their political and religious views, and given Kasich’s repeated repudiation of Trump, suburban voter turnout will probably be down this year, with plenty of ticket-splitting. But, I haven’t seen any polling to indicate actual trends.
If Ohio has a “bellwether county,” it’s probably Lake County, just to the east of Cleveland. This area is mostly suburbs and exurbs, so if it breaks for Clinton that’s probably a very good sign as to how the statewide suburban vote will go.
Rural voters will probably vote for Trump by a large margin, but they don’t have the numbers to make much of a difference.
US Senate: At the beginning of the 2016 cycle the race between former governor Sherrod Brown and the incumbent Senator Rob Portman looked competitive, but successful early attacks ads against Brown, Portman’s relative anonymity, and Brown’s early gaffes doomed his campaign. Currently, Portman enjoys a hefty lead according to all the poll aggregator sites, with an insufficient number of undecided voters to make up the difference. It would take a miracle for Brown to win. Expect Portman to take over 50% of the vote.
US House: Ohio Republicans inflicted a brutal gerrymander on the state following the 2010 census. This led to a lopsided number of Republican-controlled US House seats despite the fact that the state voted for Obama twice. Sadly, in 2016 there are no competitive House races in Ohio.
Only the 10th and 14th districts look remotely competitive (Cook PVI of R+3, and R+4, respectively). The 10th includes Dayton and some of its suburbs, while the 14th covers the suburbs and rural areas in the far northeast corner of the state, just east of Cleveland. Both districts are held by incumbents who have been there for a while, and their Democratic challengers aren’t very well-known or well-funded. So, don’t get your hopes up.
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