You might remember an article written by Nate Silver, called Donald Trump’s 6 Stages of Doom. It was written way back in the primaries, and he gave Trump only a two percent chance of winning the GOP nomination.
Silver was off base in his analysis back then.
But today, I have for you areal, genuine 6 stages of doom for Trump—based on the actual situation he finds himself in just a few days before the election.
And this prediction of doom is based on real data, not just wishful thinking or punditry. So let’s get to the task at hand, shall we?
STAGE ONE: DEATH BY LATINO
It’s difficult to feel bad about Trump’s huuuuge problem with Latino voters.
After all, he started his campaign with his famous line about Mexico “bringing drugs...bringing crime. They’re rapists...” (his supporters remind us he also said, and some, I assume, are good people).
Apparently the Latinos who have heard his rhetoric for these many months, are taking his words to heart.
Two states that the Trump campaign believes they are competitive in are Nevada and Florida. But look at the early voting numbers for Hispanics in these two states, as given to us by very reputable experts, Jon Ralston and Steve Schale.
RE: NEVADA
From Jon Ralston 11/5/16, 7 AM
Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.
Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around.
How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:
The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points.
RE: FLORIDA
From Steve Schale NOVEMBER 4, 2016 AT 9:33AM
First, through Wednesday, 170,000 more Hispanics had voted early (or VBM) in 2016 than voted early or by VBM in the entire 2012 cycle. And keep in mind, because Hispanic is a self-identifying marker, studies have found that the real Hispanic vote is larger than the registration. So while Hispanics might make up 14.2% of the voters who have voted so far, in reality, the number is larger.
And it isn’t just that Hispanics are voting, it is the types of Hispanics who are voting. Here is one way to look at it: Right now, statewide, 16% of early voters are either first time Florida voters, or haven’t voted in any of the last three elections. Across party lines, 24% of all the Hispanic votes today come from these first-time voters. Among Hispanic Republicans, it is 14%, among Democrats, it goes up to 26%, and among Hispanic NPAs, a whopping 32% have no previous or recent voting history.
When you expand it out to voters who voted in one of the last three, which is what I define as “low propensity,” it goes up to 53% of Hispanic Democrats and 60% of Hispanic NPAs. That, my friends, is the definition of a surge.
STAGE TWO: DEATH BY WOMEN
By now, most of us are familiar with Trump’s “groping tape,” the allegations of sexual assault, his continuous stream of insults and innuendo towards women reporters, women celebrities, and just females in general.
So is it any surprise that we’re seeing these kinds of early reports from those on the ground?
States with greater increase of women voting early than men from 2012: AZ, FL, GA, LA, NC (i.e., every one where there is available data)
Of the 21 states studied by TargetSmart, women accounted for more than 55% of the electorate in 15. In North Carolina, women had cast almost 57% of the early votes, several points above their strength in voter registration. The same was true in Ohio, and in two states worrying Democrats — Wisconsin and Michigan.
Women do make up the majority of voters in those states, but in each case were showing up in proportions that exceeded their registration advantage.
In Florida, women made up 60% of the Democratic early-voting sample to less than 38% for men, a factor of 5 points over the registration gap. Women also had a gender gap of more than 4 points among Republicans and independents.
“The nearly 23-percentage-point gap among Democrats is eye-popping,” said Daniel A. Smith, a University of Florida professor who analyzes voting.
STAGE THREE: DEATH BY POVERTY
I love that every stage of doom is a little bit of delicious Trumpian irony, and this stage is no different.
Given that Donald hypes himself as an ultra-rich businessman, it’s kind of sad (actually it’s not) that one of his undoings will be his lack of funds.
Donald Trump’s campaign struggled in the general election to raise money at the same levels that McCain and Romney had done in the past. And beyond his struggles raising funds, it’s not clear that his campaign was very efficient with the money it raised.
Because of The Donald’s issues with financing his campaign, he finishes the final days of the race with a dearth of cash in comparison with the Clinton machine.
The most recent campaign spending data comes from the last pre-election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission by the candidates' super-PACs. Those reports cover the first two-thirds of October, in which Trump's campaign raised $28.8 million and spent $47.6 million.
Filings from the Federal Election Commission show the democratic nominee is headed into the final days of the campaign with $62.4 million in her campaign account — nearly 4 times the $16 million remaining in the Trump campaign.
If Donald Trump were to honor his pledge to spend $100 million of his own money on his campaign, he would have to invest and spend $44 million at breakneck speed.
STAGE FOUR: DEATH BY GROUND GAME
From the beginning of his campaign, Trump eschewed the typical conventions of political gamesmanship. He decided to forego the experienced staff and political operators, instead using novices and a skeleton crew that defied common sense.
There was very little fallout from doing so in the primaries, but in the final days of the cycle, his lack of a true “get out the vote” operation is likely to hurt him in close races.
Clinton has more than twice as many field offices as Trump nationwide (489 vs. 207), and her organization dominates Trump’s in every battleground state. Clinton’s offices outnumber Trump’s by 20 in New Hampshire, 22 in Iowa, 20 in Colorado, and 27 in North Carolina. In the states where Trump has opened the most offices, such as Pennsylvania (42), Florida (29) and Ohio (22), Clinton’s advantage remans large: She bests him by 15 offices in Pennsylvania, 39 in Florida and 47 in Ohio.
Research shows that field offices can earn campaigns about a 1 percentage point increase in vote share per county. That effect may sound small, but it was enough to change the outcomes in North Carolina — and possibly Florida and Indiana as well — in 2008. If Trump is behind on Nov. 8, he won’t be able to rely on his ground game to make up the difference.
“Traditionally, it’s go-time right now,” said the sole Republican campaign staffer in the office, asking that his name not be published.
When it comes to knocking on doors, calling people, mobilizing supporters and urging them to vote, by conventional measures Trump’s campaign is lagging behind Clinton’s in what politicos refer to as the “ground game.”
“Having that ground game in place is very, very critical to success in a tight-race state like what we are seeing in Florida,” according to political consultant Brian Burgess.
“Turning out voters — and the right voters — could make up the difference of a point or two either way.”
The Republican side opened most of its 25 pop-up Florida offices — mainly run by the Republican National Committee, not the Trump campaign — less than two months ago.
STAGE FIVE: DEATH BY ISOLATION
In the end, it turns out that feuding and fighting with nearly every politician in the republican establishment might have been a bad idea.
Right now, Hillary Clinton is doing a full-court press to turn out the vote in multiple states across the country. She can’t be everywhere at once, so she relies on powerful surrogates to do much of the work for her.
Her bench is deep, consisting of heavy-hitters like Bernie Sanders, Michelle Obama, President Obama, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Tim Kaine and more.
These people have the ability to draw large crowds to rallies and then push those folks to vote and to register.
Having a large network of insiders and stars to help push you to the finish line is something that can make a difference, especially when every vote in swing states and battle grounds counts.
But who does Trump have? Besides himself and Mike Pence, he has too few friends and surrogates willing to do any lifting, let alone be seen with him on the trail. Even Chris Christie has been relegated to the trash heap thanks to Bridgegate, and the recent court decision that found his aides guilty in a widely publicized trial.
Because of Trump’s unpopularity and his feuds with Paul Ryan (among others), The Donald has been forced to be a one-man army, holding rally after rally in his key states, going it mostly alone in the waning days of the campaign.
STAGE SIX: DEATH BY MAP
And finally, it comes down to the raw pain of sheer mathematical improbability.
Trump always had a steep path to climb to get the win—the electoral college happens to favor democrats, as the blue state strongholds give the party a natural advantage heading into each cycle, and the demographics of the country have gotten “bluer” each year.
Donald Trump’s winning map consists of nailing every Romney state from 2012 and then also picking up swing states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and more.
This is our new battleground map. As you see we still have her over 270. So we're saying here -- so the most important thing to know about this map is right now this is where we see the battleground, which means that if you watch Donald Trump's numbers here, he can win Florida, he can win North Carolina and he can win Ohio and still be short. That's important.
He can win Arizona and still be short. He can win Utah and still be short. So, he's in Michigan. Why? He's got to break the big blue wall. That's Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. One of these three he's got to put into play. That's why he's trying something. Wisconsin yesterday, Michigan today. You'll see him more in New Mexico.
The numbers as you can see, they don't add up. New Hampshire is not enough. Getting one more out of Nebraska is not enough.
The Experts Weigh In
Right now, every single reputable prediction model and polling model is predicting a Hillary Clinton Win because of Trump’s fatal map problem.
NYT: 84% probability Clinton win
538: 65% probability Clinton win
Huffpost: 98% probability Clinton win
Predict wise: 86% probability Clinton win
Princeton Election Consortium: >99% probability Clinton win
Daily Kos: 90% probability Clinton win
Cook Political: Predicts Clinton with 278 electoral votes
Larry Sabato: Predicts Clinton with 293 electoral votes
In Conclusion
This has been a deeply disturbing election season. For myself and many others, it has brought about anxiety and unease unlike anything we’ve witnessed in elections past.
The stakes feel (and are) very high indeed.
But there’s good reason to feel confident that, if the sane people of this country mobilize, continue their efforts, and work hard over the course of the next few days, Donald Trump has very little chance of ever taking real power in our country.
I believe the preponderance of the evidence states that Donald Trump is doomed. Doomed to be the loser and choke artist that he accused Mitt Romney of being. Doomed to go down in history as one of the nastiest, least truthful, bigoted and reprehensible candidates to ever get close to the Presidential office.
This election is not over.
People still need to finish Trump off by voting and staying focused until he’s finally lost the credibility he so desperately wants and needs.
However, that’s exactly what I think is going to happen come November 8th.