I’m still working on Better Know a Circuit (if you haven’t seen them, here are my entries about the 4th, 7th, DC, and 9th Circuits), and aim to post my next entry this week. I want to finish the series by Election Day. At the moment, I’ve got to get something off my chest:
The Democrats are blowing it in this election. Oh sure, Clinton may yet win with the self-destruction of Trump—though Trump has been here before and come back to take the lead or make it close. Like in May after he clinched the nomination and Bernie continued to paint Hillary as a corrupt tool of Wall Street [an attack so effective that a recent poll showed the youth think Trump would be tougher on Wall Street than Clinton], in July after the FBI report on Clinton’s email server, in September after Clinton made her idiotic “basket of deplorables” comments and got pneumonia. But for now, things look good for Clinton.
But that’s about where the good news ends. The House isn’t going to change hands. The Senate is probably staying GOP. Most states will remain firmly in GOP hands. Robert Reich captured the issue nicely here: www.newsweek.com/…
Let’s look at where we stand in terms of the Senate, which Clinton will need in order to swing the the Supreme Court and appoint good judges to the lower courts too. Democrats have already lost Ohio, which should have been a competitive race. We have failed, completely and utterly, to give John McCain and Chuck Grassley the fights they deserve. Indiana and New Hampshire have swung significantly away from us over the past month, despite the contemptible hypocrisy of Kelly Ayotte. Democrats have been determined to throw away a winnable race in Florida, letting Marco Rubio coast to reelection. Oh, he’d probably be favored anyway—point is, Democrats aren’t even trying to win that race. Jason Kander is a great candidate running a solid campaign, but still trails. And Kander’s campaign is the exception. Only bright spots are Illinois and Wisconsin, where we’re currently favored. Pennsylvania and North Carolina are coin flips, and we’re probably going to lose Nevada.
And why? The Democrats’ ineffectual campaigning is a big part of why. They have been wholly ineffectual at tying the GOP to Trump, instead treating them as distinct entities. Trump, in addition to being a thoroughly evil and stupid man, represents the GOP very well. Trump should lose by a landslide and take down the party with him. Yet the Democrats seem scared to point this out. They have also done little to rev up their base. They don’t get that the millennials necessary to victory want something to vote FOR, not just AGAINST. Trump is evil—yes, the millennial generation knows that. But what are you going to do for us? What makes you cool and inspiring? (Yes, it isn’t just about policy.)
Kelly Ayotte should not be running ahead of Maggie Hassan after her shameless groveling to Trump and denouncing him after the fact. Pat Toomey has done likewise in my home state of PA, and is running dead even with Katie McGinty. By all rights, Jason Kander should defeat Roy Blunt. The race that really sticks in my craw, however, is Florida. This race is winnable for the Democrats. And it represents an opportunity to ruin one of the GOP’s brightest stars. Marco Rubio may not be much different from Trump on policy, but he has a nice face, personal charm, and gigantic media backing to hide behind. Should he get reelected, he automatically is a front-runner for 2020, along with Paul Ryan. Do not try to logic your way out of that—politics doesn’t follow the rules of logic.
Marco Rubio also personally insults and mocks people like me—I’m LGBT, and I’m a scientist. Rubio proudly proclaims he’s “not a scientist” and therefore climate change is a hoax and evolution and creationism are equally valid viewpoints. Rubio used the dead bodies of LGBT citizens in Orlando to justify seeking reelection, while voting down all forms of gun control and promoting the culture of anti-LGBT hate that encourages people like the Orlando shooter.
And let’s not forget—a bunch of people in Florida, when polled, say they haven’t heard enough of Patrick Murphy to form an opinion. These polls also show Rubio competitive with Hispanics, even as Clinton trounces Trump. Why aren’t the Democrats doing more outreach to Hispanics, then? Heck, their VP nominee is FLUENT in the language!! Why isn’t he in Florida more, trying to get the Hispanics to vote for Clinton/Kaine AND Murphy??
The most recent polls have Florida within the margin of error. DSCC, where the hell are you??!
If Clinton wins but we don’t get the Senate, buckle up because we’re in for a rough ride. She won’t even get to make decent appointments because McConnell will just block everyone for four years. Meanwhile, the GOP will continue their remarkably successful push at the state level. And as usual, the allergic-to-reason American electorate will blame Clinton, not the true culprits in the GOP. Someone like Rubio, or Ryan, would be a VERY formidable challenger then.
We need the Senate. It is political malpractice that we are losing that fight, and that we are throwing away Florida without a fight.
End rant. Let’s hope the debate goes well. I’ll get back to Better Know a Circuit. I’ll probably add a bonus entry on SCOTUS, too.