Maybe today’s Quinippiac poll release is an outlier in that it shows Clinton struggling against Trump in the 3 most important states — the ones that are almost certain to decide the outcome in November. But, maybe the takeaway should be that Sanders is running stronger in all 3 states.
- FLORIDA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 44 - Trump 42
- OHIO: Clinton 39 - Trump 43; Sanders 43 - Trump 41
- PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 47 - Trump 41
I don’t put a whole lot of stock in national polling to begin with, much less national polling in general. But polling in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio? There’s a reason why Quinnipiac polled these 3. It’s because the GOP isn’t going to win if they can’t win at least two of these three. This should be a serious warning sign, whatever you think of Quinnipiac.
Moreover, the thing that really stands out is that Sanders consistently outperforms Clinton — even if it is only by a point or two in Florida and Pennsylvania, where Trump’s long notoriety explains his popularity. But, in Ohio? Where Clinton trails and Sanders leads over Trump? That’s a sign that Sanders appeals to voters that would be part of a winning Trump coalition — the disaffected white working class.
There’s no reason to think that Clinton can win that demographic, but Sanders can. He would have a broader coalition and would be the stronger candidate. If that matters to you...or to the voters in California and New Jersey (where, Trump might do a lot better than the average GOP candidate).