On Super Tuesday Part Deux (3/15/16) Hillary Clinton delivered a decisive blow to the Sanders campaign and effectively took full control of the race for the Democratic nomination. She swept all 5 contests (6 including the No. Marianas Islands on the prior weekend) despite being outspent. She has a net gain of approximately 100 delegates on the night. She won FL, NC and OH by double digits. She won Illinois and Missouri narrowly. I had previously predicted that she would win all 5 contests, though the margin in OH was larger than I had expected and Illinois smaller than I had predicted.
Here are my takeaways from Super Tuesday Part Deux:
1. It’s still THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY — Bernie Sanders was behind by more than 20 points among registered Democrats in every state poll. That’s why he lost. He failed to persuade registered Democrats that he had passed the threshold to be the nominee.
2. Debates Matter — Sanders did not perform well in the last 3 debates/forums. His FL debate performance was a disaster. Floridians did not take well to the Sandernista agenda. The question on how his socialism was different than the Castro/Sandinista model killed him in that state. In his other 2 forums, he did not provide the substantive answers to some of the tougher questions about his policy positions. He often reverted to talking points and well practiced slogans. Registered Democrats were not satisfied.
3. Hillary Dissected Bernie on Trade — Hillary’s campaign in OH did not get much coverage, but she effectively critiqued Bernie as someone who is reflexively ‘no’ on trade and could not provide any nuance as to how the US could make trade agreements work better for American business. She did provide an approach to make trade a winner for American business and to shield vulnerable businesses from unfair competition. Sanders conflates trade (the ability to sell goods and services in foreign markets on equal and non-discriminatory terms), outsourcing and automation. Hillary exploited Sanders’ conflation problem, and Sherrod Brown and Tim Ryan both validated her view of the world on that issue.
4. Everyone Hates Rahm Emmanuel — It is astonishing to me that Sanders nearly pulled off an upset win in IL by attacking the Mayor of Chicago. But if you look at the results, Sanders kept Clinton’s margin in Chicago and the Cook County Suburbs to single digits. Without the Rahm factor, Clinton probably wins both counties by double digits and wins more easily.
5. The Clinton name still means something in Missouri — Bill Clinton won Missouri twice in his 2 runs for the Presidency. Hillary Clinton managed to leverage the regional connection with Arkansas and Bill’s relative popularity to win a number of Southern Missouri counties to keep that race close enough for Hillary to clip Bernie at the end with the votes from KC and STL.
6. The Way Forward — Bernie Sanders has the money, the desire and support from his base to keep the race going. He has a somewhat more favorable calendar and should win a few more contests, but Hillary will also win a number of states, including large ones like NY, PA and CA. I don’t think the delegate margin will change much from where it is today. Hillary is in control of the race and will likely be the nominee.