A decade has passed and another Census has been completed, you know what that means: Iowa loses another seat in Congress. Continuing its slow trod toward an at-large district (due when the American population hits 450 million, I imagine), Iowa's congressional delegation will be reduced from five to four for the 2012 cycle. The new lines will be drawn by a nonpartisan commission, subject to majority vote in the legislatures. The basic rule to remember is that all districts must be contiguous and no counties may be subdivided. Due to this remarkably wise and relatively apolitical system of redistricting, each opportunity for redistricting means that the new maps may bear little resemblance to their predecessors. Following the 2000 Census, the legislature did reject the initial agency recommendation for its (to paraphrase former Rep. Jim Leach) political awkwardness. Nonetheless, I wish to offer my thoughts on an ideal map for the state. This is the map that I think is the most logical. It will essentially lead to one heavily-Republican district (the 4th), one heavily-Democratic district (the 2nd), and two tossups. This makes sense given that Iowa, while historically Republican, has tended to support Democratic presidential nominees in recent decades, and has consistently re-elected both Republican Sen. Charles Grassley (since 1980) and Democratic Sen. Tom Harksin (since 1984).
First District - Eastern Iowa, with a core of Dubuque, Scott, Muscatine, Clinton, and Keokuk Counties. It only makes sense that the Mississippi River towns have a common representative. Since these cities alone will not be populous enough to form a district, the territory will stretch west into farming-dominated counties. From a Democratic point of view, it would be best for this incursion to be primarily on the north end of the district, stretching west all the way to Cerro Gordo County, which includes the labor stronghold of Mason City. This would also prevent the county's inclusion in the much more Republican Fourth District (see below). Even if the lines are so drawn, this district would tend to resemble a district that elected former GOP Rep. Jim Nussle for all of the 1990s, leading me to believe it would be fairly neutral.
Second District - East-central Iowa. This district would straddle the Interstate 380 corridor, and merge Black Hawk County (Waterloo) with Linn (Cedar Rapids) and Johnson Counties (Iowa City) for the first time since the 19th century. These lines are long overdue given what these counties have in common, and would give the district a decidedly Democratic tilt. It would also seem sensible to underpopulate this district slightly, given the strong growth of Linn and Johnson Counties. That means a few rural counties will be lumped into the First or Fourth Districts that might otherwise be included here in the Second, although it would make sense to keep Bremer County in the Second, since its fortunes are closely tied to those of Cedar Falls-Waterloo in Black Hawk County. I would recommend the inclusion of Bremer, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Benton, Iowa, Johnson, Linn, and Washington Counties.
Third District - This district would be composed of Polk County (Des Moines) and its adjacent counties, including Story County (Ames). In terms of population, it would be slightly smaller than the other districts, but in time this discrepancy would ease, given that this part of the state is growing rapidly. In terms of character, its representative would be primarily concerned with aiding its urban growth. I would recommend the inclusion of Polk, Story, Warren, Madison, and Dallas Counties. Politically, the Republican forces of suburbia will clash with the more Democratic Des Moines and Ames, so it seems capable of electing either a Democrat or a Republican.
Fourth District - This district would essentially cover the western half of the state, with the exception of the bulk of the Des Moines metro. The current Fifth District (that of the infamous Rep. Steve King) would be expanded into east-central Iowa, absorbing some of the outer Des Moines metro, and possibly even stretching within two counties of the Mississippi River along the state's southern end. This district would have a decidedly Republican tilt.
Other ideas for the redistricting?
Should the Democrats support a constitutional amendment to regulate the states' districting procedures?