Clinton’s leads in these four states are once again powered by her large advantage among African American voters.
It appears Sanders is making a big play for Illinois, Missouri and to a lesser extent Ohio. I think Clinton has Florida and North Carolina locked up. I think she can win Ohio as well.
In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead of Sanders among likely primary voters by 27 points in Florida, 61 percent to 34 percent; by 20 points in Ohio, 58 percent to 38 percent; but by just six points in Illinois, 51 percent to 45 percent.
The size of Clinton's lead in all three states directly correlates to her advantage with African-American Democratic voters - 57 points in Florida (77 percent to 20 percent), 48 points in Ohio (72 percent to 24 percent) and 39 points in Illinois (67 percent to 28 percent).
Likely and actual Democratic primary voters found that a majority (58 percent) support Clinton and 34 percent favor Sanders.
Clinton leads Sanders by 65 points among African American primary voters. (80% - 15%)
691 pledged delegates up for grabs on Mar 15th.
Clinton’s target is, 365. Sanders target is 326.
This is a delegate contest and if Clinton ends up winning FL, NC by large margins, she would extend her pledged delegate lead even further. If both were just to hit their delegate targets right on the number, Clinton would still extend her lead to +264.
In this Harry Enten scenario, you really understand what a hill this is to climb for Sanders. March 15 will be interesting, but if the polls hold Clinton will add to her already formidable delegate lead.
I know about Michigan and how the polling was way off there. Could that happen again? Sure. For everyone of these states? I don't think that’s realistic.