Marco Rubio’s campaign has repeatedly been pressed on just when, and in which state exactly, will they start to actually win. They don’t have an answer. So Nate Cohn looks at Rubio’s highly improbable—and yet narrowly possible—chance at winning the GOP nomination even if he scores a big goose egg in all 12 contests on Super Tuesday next week.
His chances of amassing an outright majority of delegates, and becoming the presumptive nominee before the convention, would be quite low. But he would still have a real chance to take a clear delegate lead over Donald Trump, and win the nomination.
That window closes March 15. On that day a slew of big winner-take-all states will vote. If Mr. Rubio can’t hold his own in those states — Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina — it will become extremely difficult for him to finish the primary season with a lead in pledged delegates. His more realistic strategy then would be to deny Mr. Trump a majority and hope to win at a contested convention. So, yes, the delegate math works.
Rubio’s lifeline comes from the fact that most Super Tuesday states award their delegates proportionally, making it difficult for Donald Trump to score a total knockout punch even if he wins every state.
It will be difficult on Super Tuesday for Mr. Trump to amass a significant majority of delegates if the other two major candidates — Mr. Rubio and Ted Cruz — clear the thresholds (at highest 20 percent) for earning proportional delegates. It seemed quite possible a few weeks ago that Mr. Trump could build a big lead on Super Tuesday, but Jeb Bush’s exit from the race and the big bump in Mr. Rubio’s poll numbers make it far less likely that Mr. Trump can pull that off.
But March 15 matters "bigly" (to turn a Trump phrase) with huge winner-take-all states on the line like Ohio and Florida, where Trump still holds a considerable double-digit edge over native sons John Kasich and Rubio, respectively. So yeah, still operating on a wing and a prayer and prepping for a contested convention.