The pollsters at Quinnipiac University are back in the field in Ohio, and they show strong initial numbers for endangered first-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, as well as for President Barack Obama.
Brown's approval numbers are strong, and he has a substantial edge over a generic Republican opponent, albeit with a large group of undecideds.
Quinnipiac University (press release). 1/12-17. Registered voters. MoE 2.7%.
Sherrod Brown (D) 45
Generic Republican (R) 33
That 12-point advantage is identical to the margin Brown posted in 2006 when he was elected to the Senate over incumbent Republican Mike DeWine, 56% to 44%.
Brown's approval in this poll is quite robust: 45% of Ohio voters approve of Brown's job performance to just 25% who disapprove. That's a marked difference from Public Policy Polling's last snapshot of the race, which put Brown's approval at a middling 40-37, and gave him slim leads over several named opponents.
Even if Quinnipiac's numbers are spot-on, a Generic Republican is quite different from a live one (that can be good or bad, depending), and a lot can change in 21 months or so.
Still, his numbers look good for the time being, which is significant for several reasons. Brown is a genuine progressive populist, and he's the last Democratic statewide official left standing in Ohio after the 2010 bloodbath. His reelection is critical to preserving Democratic strength in the state, and to keeping a strong progressive voice in the Senate Democratic caucus.
Quinnipiac tested President Barack Obama's reelection numbers against a Generic Republican as well, and perhaps more significantly, they also show him leading:
Barack Obama (D) 48
Generic Republican (R) 44
There are far fewer undecideds in this matchup than in the Senate race, which is unsurprising since most Ohioans and Americans already have a pretty strong opinion of Barack Obama. As such, it's notable that he's leading.
Obama's approval stands at 49% to 46% disapproving, up from a negative 45/49 back in June 2010. It's also much better than the 42/49 spread PPP had for Obama in December (though they also showed him beating all named opponents).
As always, Ohio should be one of the most hotly contested states in the nation once the 2012 election heats up. With his approvals, it seems likely that Sherrod Brown will run a couple points ahead of President Obama, absent a particularly strong Republican Senate candidate.
So if Barack Obama maintains his edge in Ohio (or comes close), he will not only almost certainly be reelected to a second term, but so will Sherrod Brown.