Democrats Need Black Turnout and a Lopsided Black Vote
Unlike Hispanics, black voters are just as likely as whites to live in swing states. In 2016, they will wield least 50% more total voting power than Hispanics, despite having smaller overall numbers and constituting a roughly equal share of the national electorate.
These dynamics mean that relatively small declines in black turnout and vote share could cost Democrats the election. Obama achieved both unprecedented black turnout and an unprecedented share of the black vote. Democrats cannot nominate a minority three times in a row without losing their appeal to many white voters. Yet it is highly unlikely a white candidate can duplicate Obama's command performance among black voters, especially in the face of increasing voter suppression.