On Sunday I posted a diary discussing an electoral-college option of last resort that Obama could rely on in case Ohio fell. I called them salvation states: NH,IA,CO, and NV are four states that would carry the President to reelection even if he lost Ohio.
When I posted that diary, I was hoping it might get the math nerds to talk about the intricacies of electoral college planning and an interesting discussion would be enjoyed by all. Instead I was almost instantly accused of being a "concern troll" by some zealots. Anyhow, I'm not paid by any Republicans to somehow sabotage the will of the Daily Kos reader (unlike most astroturfers, I can actually defend my positions). But I did want to come back to my earlier post and account for new polling data.
When I'm talking about Obama's salvation strategy, I'm talking about his pathway to 270 without winning Ohio. I want to get this out of the way, that does not mean I think he will lose Ohio, I am simply speculating what Obama's options are should he lose.
My original assessment still stands: NH,IA,CO, and NV (all four of which are currently trending for Obama) would win the election for the President without Ohio. And they could conceivably be held even if the firewall in Ohio failed. But polling data for the past week (and the whole election really) strongly suggests that Nevada has moved from swing to safe. So I'm going to replace Nevada with Virginia (another slight Obama lead).
If we consider Virginia as part of this strategy, Obama's probability of victory sans Ohio becomes even more robust. He can now win with VA + one of NH,IA, or CO. Or he can win with NA+IA+CO. And of course, if Obama wins Florida Romney's chances are DOA.
As I said, it's a backup strategy, but it's a hell of a strong one.