Sen. Olympia Snowe is proud of her moderation. So proud, in fact, that she thinks it'll protect her relection chances in 2012. And looking at her approvals in Maine, her 56-34 are among the best (if not the best) for 2012 incumbents.
Last November, right after she supported the health care bill in committee, we found that 59% of Maine Republicans wanted to replace Olympia Snowe with someone more conservative while only 31% said they would support her again in 2012.
The passage of 10 months hasn't done much to soften the ill will toward Snowe with members of her own party. Now 63% of them say they would support a more conservative alternative with only 29% saying they're committed to Snowe.
Moderate Republicans love Snowe. They give her a 70% approval rating and a strong majority say they'd vote to nominate her for another term. But those folks make up only 30% of the GOP electorate in Maine. It's now dominated by conservatives and they're particularly negative toward her, giving her just a 26% approval rating and saying by a 78-15 margin they'd like to trade her out for someone to the right.
Remember, the Maine GOP has become one of the most radical in the country. Their party platform is an absurd collection of Beckian conspiracy theories>
The document calls for the elimination of the Department of Education and the Federal Reserve, demands an investigation of "collusion between government and industry in the global warming myth," suggests the adoption of "Austrian Economics," declares that "'Freedom of Religion' does not mean 'freedom from religion'" (which I guess makes atheism illegal), insists that "healthcare is not a right," calls for the abrogation of the "UN Treaty on Rights of the Child" and the "Law Of The Sea Treaty" and declares that we must resist "efforts to create a one world government."
The new governor of Maine, Paul LePage, is an unabashed teabagger.
"[A]s your governor, you're going to be seeing a lot of me on the front page saying: 'Governor LePage Tells Obama to Go to Hell,'" he told a group of local fisherman in late September, in an exchange that was captured on video.
He may have squeaked in with just 38 percent in a fragmented four-way governor's race, but he's now literally the head of the Maine GOP. Republicans now control both the governorship and legislature for the first time in 40 years. The GOP wave hit Maine hard, and swept in a new generation of teabagger legislators.
These Republicans aren't cut from the same cloth as Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe. And given they'll dominate the primary process, they're an existential threat to Snowe.
The incumbent isn't sanguine about her party. Last year she lamented its rightward drift, and that was before the incoming class of wackos were even announced candidates:
"I've always been a Republican for the traditional principles that have been associated with the Republican party since I became a Republican, when I registered to vote. And that is limited government, individual opportunities, fiscal responsibility, and a strong national defense. So I think those principles have always been a part of the Republican party heritage. And I believe that I reflect those views and I haven't changed as a Republican. I think more that my party has changed.
So Snowe now has a decision to make. She stays a Republican and goes down with that ship, she goes independent, still caucusing with the Republicans, and hopes to pull a Lisa Murkowski -- getting the votes of Democrats so fearful of the alternative that they enable Mitch McConnell, or she goes full fledged Democratic. The key would be to make the switch early, to avoid the stench of opportunism that bedeviled Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist. To that end, Senate Dems seem to be wooing her:
We hear that Dems are making new overtures to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine to switch teams. They've tried before, but Snowe's 2012 primary prospects make taking another run at her now seem worth it.
If Harry Reid really wants her to switch, he should ask Jim DeMint to give her a call!
For real Dems, the best option is for Snowe to stick with the GOP and go down in flames, giving a real Democrat a shot in an open seat against whatever teabagger neanderthal they throw at the race. It's not as if vote #54 will get us much further in a dysfunctional Senate, even if Democrats make progress on reforming the filibuster.
But it's not our call to make. But count on it -- Snowe won't be a Republican by the time her primary is finished. The only question is whether she's leaving her party voluntarily, on her own terms, or whether she gets the boot from the crazed Maine GOP.