I know it seems like the polls are all over the place swinging wildly this way and that (which they are). This has some people thinking everything from conspiracy theories to outdated models.
What I'm about to tell you will not necessarily clear things up altogether, but I think it could offer a logical reason why the polls are all over the map and further reason why I think the RAND poll offers more poll stability and seems to track what everyone feels more closely since it tracks the same people over time.
There's also a good lesson in here on why you should knock on every door on your list even if the yard looks like a Romney sign store.
Follow me over the fold/orange thingy/insert-your-own-word-here for the story.