The media really wants this to be a horse race, but by my wild estimate, Obama has pretty much locked up Ohio and Romney is wasting valuable time when he campaigns in the state. Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 67% chance of winning Ohio. I think that number had better go up a considerable degree tonight. NBC/Marist finds that 18% of Ohio voters have already voted. Of that 18%, 63% have voted for Obama. Of the remaining who have yet to vote, Obama leads by 48/46. Anyone good at math? My wild guess is Romney would have to carry the remaining voters by 60/40 in order to win the state. He is double digits away from that.
The other 538 result I might have to take issue with is the possibility that Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college. 538 places the probability of that outcome at 3.8%. I think with Ohio in Obama's column so early, those odds at least approach double digit percentages. If this election is tight as all odds are pointing to at this point, Obama is really going to have to blow the last two debates to make things worse then they are right now. I'd much rather see Obama win everything, but an only electoral college victory would be sweet payback for 2000.
Romney does have a path to victory even if Ohio is lost as I postulate, but it isn't easy. Let's put NH in Obama's column. For Obama to win, he needs (Iowa OR Wisconsin) AND (Colorado OR Nevada). Forget Virginia or Florida because they are not needed if those two states are captured. With Wisconsin even New Hampshire isn't necessary.
Don't you love the headline for this news story: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states
How about: Obama most probably has won Ohio
Or: What are you doing in Ohio Romney?
Truth be told, Romney needs to concentrate on the four states I mentioned with Iowa and Colorado being most important. He is wasting his time and money in Ohio.