Bill Nelson (D-inc): 44 (41)Well, that's quite the turnaround, isn't it? Quinnipiac's first two polls of the Florida Senate race that included a named GOP opponent showed Democratic two-term incumbent Bill Nelson only barely ahead of Republican Rep. Connie Mack (by 1 point in January and 2 in November). Today, though they find Nelson up by 8, which puts Quinnipiac right in line with the other reputable pollsters, like PPP and Suffolk. (Rasmussen, of course, sees Mack leading the race, but, well, that's Rasmussen.)
Connie Mack IV (R): 36 (40)
Undecided: 17 (16)
If you're one of those armchair analysts who thinks that every bump and burp in the polls has an immediate explanation stemming from some event that happened recently in the race, you'd probably want to point to revelations about Mack's pre-Congress days of bar brawls and road rage, which surfaced in local newspapers but has been kept alive by Republican primary opponent George LeMieux's advertising (which compares Mack to Charlie Sheen).
If you're more the calm quantitative type, though, you've probably noticed that the sample is one that's all around more favorable to Democrats, most notably in that Barack Obama now beats Mitt Romney 49 to 42 in the presidential portion, up from a 46-43 Romney lead last time. That still, however, leaves you to wonder whether Nelson is getting pulled along by Obama's coattails as his own prospects improve (given that the previous sample was before most of the carnage of the Republican primary season), or whether the lay of the land hasn't changed much and Quinnipiac just wound up with a friendlier sample this time.
Quinnipiac. 3/20-26. Registered voters. MoE ±2.8%. (2/7-12 results):
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 46 (48)Unlike Florida, Quinnipiac finds things looking entirely consistent in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown sports another lead in the 10-to-15 point ballpark over Republican state treasurer Josh Mandel, as virtually every non-Rasmussen poll has always shown. If you want to wring your hands over something, you can point to "the race is three points closer!" or "Brown is under 50%," but everything is within the same band of results as previous polls ... and Mandel just got another deluge of bad press in the local media over repeated fabrications, which may help blunt any momentum he may be experiencing. As with Florida, Quinnipiac also finds good news on the presidential front in the Buckeye State, with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 47-41, which is up from 46-44 a month ago.
Josh Mandel (R): 36 (35)
Undecided: 14 (14)